We Are Burning Less Oil And Coal, So Why Is The Earth Still Getting Hotter?
For the first time since the global pandemic lockdowns of 2020, carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to fall this year.
While fossil fuel pollution is dipping, total global carbon dioxide emissions are still climbing to an all-time record, putting human lives and basic rights on the line.
According to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, published on Tuesday as world leaders gather for the UN’s COP31 climate summit in Antalya, emissions from oil, gas, and coal are projected to drop by 0.4% in 2026.
That small decline is driven by two very different forces.
First, clean energy is scaling up rapidly, with solar power, wind farms, and electric vehicles now accounting for roughly two-thirds of the growth in global energy demand.
Second, the ongoing war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a sharp oil price shock, forcing global oil consumption and oil emissions, down by 1.9%.
Scientists warn that this is not a victory lap.
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“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the study.
University of East Anglia climate professor Corinne Le Quéré echoed that concern, noting that just like after the 2020 pandemic, emissions are likely to rebound.
Even more alarming is what happens when scientists factor in deforestation and land-use changes.
Driven by human-ignited peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, worsened by dry conditions from this year’s powerful El Niño weather pattern, land-use emissions are jumping to 5.1 billion metric tons.
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Combined with 38.2 billion metric tons from fossil fuels, total global carbon dioxide emissions will hit 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion metric tons last year.
At this pace, researchers calculate that humanity has just 150 billion metric tons left in its “carbon budget”, meaning the world will blow past the critical 1.5°C warming threshold in less than four years.
Behind those numbers is an escalating human crisis.
A separate report released Monday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that the past 12 years have been the warmest on record, with global temperatures between January and September 2026 already sitting roughly 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels.
For millions of people, climate change is no longer a future threat, it is an immediate assault on health, safety, and livelihoods.
In April, roughly 146.5 million people in India were exposed to an extreme heatwave that pushed temperatures to 47°C. Over the summer, heatwaves across Europe caused more than 30,000 estimated excess deaths.
In late August, a Himalayan glacier collapsed in Nepal, unleashing a flash flood that killed more than 1,300 people.
For the first time, the World Health Organization has classified the expected impacts of the developing El Niño (natural climate pattern where surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm), which is projected to become the strongest on record by December as a health emergency, warning of heightened food insecurity where farming depends on rainfall.
Addressing delegates ahead of the COP31 talks, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that a “supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change”.
“Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising. And those least responsible are suffering first and worst,” Guterres said, urging wealthy nations to stop stalling and deliver the funds and protection that vulnerable communities need to survive.
