In the Hindi heartland, religion and caste heavily influence political alignments. The region holds a crucial position in Indian politics. Often referred to as the “cow belt” due to the deep reverence for cows among Hindus, it has been a stronghold of Hindu nationalist forces since the 1960s. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s core voter base is located in this region inhabited by Hindi speakers, India’s most widely spoken language.
The Hindi heartland comprises Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, and Delhi, spanning northern, central, and western India. Together, these states account for 228 (42 percent) of India’s 543 parliamentary seats. This region was instrumental in Narendra Modi’s rise to power in 2014. Out of the 228 constituencies, 195 were won by BJP candidates, and 11 went to its allies. In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured 183 seats here, with 25 seats going to its allies. This accounted for 61 percent and 59 percent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s total seats in 2014 and 2019, respectively.
It won’t be wrong to say that the BJP, which has already peaked in the Hindi heartland, is now cautious about a potential decline. Since the 1989 parliamentary elections, the Hindi heartland has consistently contributed over 60 percent of the BJP’s national tally, except in 2009 when it accounted for 57.8 percent (67 out of 116 seats) and in 2019 when it won 59 percent of the seats. However, since 2014, the region has overwhelmingly supported the BJP.
To secure a third term, the BJP must maintain its stronghold in the Hindi heartland. The party aims to surpass its 2019 performance by winning all 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India, leveraging sentiments around the newly inaugurated Ram Temple in Ayodhya. The BJP won 71 and 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and 2019, respectively.
However, political analysts are skeptical about the BJP’s ambitious goals, suggesting that the party may have already reached its peak in the Hindi heartland, and its seat count is more likely to decrease. The BJP itself has noted some worrying indicators, such as the absence of a “Modi wave” and lower voter turnout, which could lead to closer contests in some constituencies.
Psephologist-turned-political activist Yogendra Yadav is confident that the BJP’s seat count will decrease in Uttar Pradesh. “It will surely be less than what they got in 2019. If they have a setback in UP, it is impossible that states like Bihar, MP, and Rajasthan remain unimpacted,” Yadav has asserted.
Maharashtra and Karnataka, outside the Hindi heartland, gave the BJP 40 seats in 2014 and 48 in 2019, with allies securing an additional 18 seats both times. However, this time, neither state seems likely to favour the BJP. That is one of the reasons why the BJP is being extra cautious about the Hindi heartland.
While the BJP is seemingly in a comfortable positioned in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, where opposition leadership has failed to make a substantial impact on voters, developments in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Delhi are being closely watched.
In the last two elections, the BJP-led NDA swept Bihar, winning 31 of 40 seats in 2014 and 39 in 2019. However, the 2020 state assembly election saw a close contest, with the NDA narrowly winning. This time, the opposition hopes to capitalise on anti-incumbency sentiment against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United), a BJP ally, who has been in office since 2005, barring a nine-month gap.
In Rajasthan, with its 25 seats, the Jats, an influential Hindu caste, are actively campaigning against the BJP. The BJP’s 2019 ally, the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, has allied with the Congress, which is also partnering with the Communist Party of India (Marxist).
In Delhi, which has seven seats, the Congress and its rival, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), have formed an alliance, complicating the BJP’s prospects.
In Uttar Pradesh, there is general satisfaction with the improved law and order under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. However, the Rajputs, an upper caste, are campaigning against the BJP. The Congress-Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance aims to improve the opposition’s tally by focusing on issues like inflation and unemployment and consolidating the votes of Muslims and the Yadav caste.
Low voter turnout is another concern for the BJP. The average turnout in the first two phases has been lower than in 2019, particularly in the Hindi heartland states. The turnout stood at 66.14 percent for 102 seats and 66.71 percent for 88 seats, respectively, which is lower than the 2019 turnout for these seats.
However, political observers caution against assuming that lower turnout will harm the BJP and not others. Typically, lower turnout indicates a lack of anti-incumbency sentiment. Moreover, turnout has been low not only in Hindu-dominated areas but also in constituencies with significant Muslim populations.
