Explained: The EAC-PM Report About Religion Based Population And The Controversy Around ItA recent report, titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross Country Analysis (1950–2015),’ was released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM). Headed by a group of authors – Shamika Ravi, Abraham Jose, and Apurv Kumar Mishra – the report is being widely discussed across news channels in different contexts, often raising alarm.
The opposition parties have slammed the findings of the report questioning the timing of the paper and claiming that it has been released to polarise the voters on communal lines. AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi called the paper a product of “WhatsApp University.” RJD leader and Bihar’s deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav slammed the ruling BJP of raking up Hindu-Muslim instead of addressing common issues such as unemployment and inflation.
D. Raja, general secretary of CPI(M), observed that the government had no data related to COVID deaths, migrant labourers, and had not conducted any surveys on unemployment or poverty, or the national census but released the PM-EAC survey with the objective of polarisation.
While there are several nuances behind the numbers, here’s an explanation of what the data is, what it implies, and why there’s no reason for concern or alarm.
1. The report studies data from 167 countries from 1950 to 2015. The report says that in 1950, 75% of the population was comprised of majority communities. Over the span of 65 years in the 167 countries, there has been an average decline of 21.9% in the majority communities, which comprise 58.5% of the total population.
2. This suggests that, globally, majority communities across countries are witnessing a decline in terms of the percentage of the overall population. The reasons could vary from migration, fertility rates, conversion, and more, depending on the country.
3. Out of the 35 OECD countries, the most developed and free-market democracies, included in the analysis, 33 witnessed a decrease in the share of the majority religious group since 1950.
4. The OECD countries are highly developed, advanced, and democratic, with a high quality of life for their citizens. The decline in the percentage of the majority population in such countries indicates they are more inclusive and welcoming of other communities, with growing opportunities for all.
5. Out of the total 94 countries with a Christian-dominating population, 77 nations witnessed a decline of the majority in the overall population. Similarly, of the 38 Muslim majority nations, 25 witnessed an increase in the population of the majority community. The reasons for the rise include the nations being dictatorships, monarchies, and against immigration and naturalisation.
6. In India, the share of the majority Hindu population has decreased by 7.82% between 1950 and 2015, with the total percentage falling from 84.68% to 78.06%. The Muslim population has seen a rise of 43.15% during the same period, with the total Muslim population rising from 9.84% to 14.09% in 2015.
7. Based on national family health surveys and the 2011 census, there has been a gap in the total fertility rate (TFR) for the Muslim and Hindu populations and other minorities like Christians, Jains, Buddhists, etc. While the gap has been narrowing, it still very much exists.
8. Other minority groups, such as Christians, rose from 2.24% to 2.36%, with a 5.38% increase. The Sikh population increased from 1.24% in 1951 to 1.85% in 2015. While the Buddhist population increased from 0.05% to 0.81%, which could be attributed to the conversion of Dalits into Buddhism,.
9. Notably, in Bangladesh in 1950 (then East Pakistan), the number of Muslims rose by 18% while the Hindu population declined heavily to 8% from 23% in 1950. The decline is attributed to the Hindu migration from the nation to India during the 1950s.
10. In Pakistan, 13.5% of the Hindu population declined to 2% in 2015. However, there’s a catch. The 1950 data includes those living in East Pakistan as well. For a clearer comparison, Pakistan’s census report (1951) shows that in West Pakistan, 1.56% of the Hindu population resided. This suggests that in 2015, the Hindu population had risen to 2%.
The report also states that in India, “minorities are not just protected but indeed thriving. This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighbourhood, where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.”
SHARE OF RELIGIOUS MINORITIES: A CROSS COUNTRY ANALYSIS (1950-2015)