The June 1 exit polls have loudly predicted a huge win for the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and confirmed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return to the top post. The opposition INDIA bloc remains composed, asserting that PM Modi is out and they are forming the new government.
On the eve of the vote counting for the recently concluded seven-phase Lok Sabha election—the longest in 72 years—let’s analyse the ruling BJP’s communal and divisive campaign. Critics argue that the six-week gap between the first and seventh phases was designed to favour PM Modi, the centerpiece of the party’s election strategy.
As the election progressed, it became clear there was no significant national wave. The prime minister set an ambitious goal for the NDA to win 400 seats in the Lok Sabha. Since April 19, millions have cast their votes, but turnouts slightly dipped from the record highs of 2019, which could have caused anxiety among BJP leaders, analysts suggest.
With declining voter turnout in each phase, BJP cadres had to encourage Hindu voters to participate, but with limited success. Party workers admitted they could only persuade a few.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had a clear campaign strategy, focusing on the Prime Minister and his leadership. NDA candidates emphasised that votes were not for them individually but to secure another term for Narendra Modi. This approach aimed to deflect attention from issues that could embarrass the alliance, such as replacing over 100 sitting MPs.
However, after Phase-1 of voting, the BJP’s campaign rhetoric shifted to targeting Muslims. The “400 paar” slogan faded from PM Modi’s rallies, replaced by Islamophobic language. Critics note that the Hindu nationalist BJP and its supporters have always used inflammatory language to describe the country’s about 20 crore Muslims, but rarely the PM himself. This time PM Modi was describing them an existential threat to Hindus and accusing the Congress of favouring Muslims without evidence.
Hindus constitute 79.8 percent of India’s population, as per the census of 2011, while Muslims are the largest minority group, with a 14.2 percent share of India’s population.
At a rally in Rajasthan, PM Modi stated that Congress, if in power, would prioritise Muslims over others. He claimed Muslims were “infiltrators” with “large families” and accused Congress of intending to redistribute the country’s wealth to Muslims. He warned women that their gold would be taken and redistributed to Muslims and alleged Congress wanted to select cricket players based on religion.
He also claimed that when the Congress party was in government, “they said Muslims have the first right over the country’s resources.” If it returns to power, the party “will gather all your wealth and distribute it among those who have more children,” he said.
The then Prime Minister’s Office had clarified that Singh meant the “first claim on resources” would be of SCs, STs, OBCs, women and children, and minorities.
When Congress released its manifesto, the BJP intensified its attacks on Muslims. Statements on inheritance tax and racism by a Congress leader provided further ammunition. At this point, the BJP began responding to Congress’s agenda rather than setting its own narrative.
Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh criticised PM Modi for his divisive speeches. Singh, who led the UPA governments between 2004 and 2014, stated that no previous Prime Minister had used such hateful language targeting specific communities or the opposition. He refuted Modi’s claims that he favoured Muslims, clarifying that his statement about resource allocation included all disadvantaged groups.
PM Modi’s speeches sparked outrage among Muslim leaders and opposition politicians, who raised the issue with the Election Commission of India (ECI). Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge called PM Modi’s comments “hate speech,” while spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi deemed them “deeply objectionable.” The ECI’s response was slow and muted, taking four days to issue a notice to PM Modi and simultaneously to Rahul Gandhi for allegedly similar violations. The notices did not directly name either leader, breaking from precedent.
The ECI’s final response to the BJP was only published on May 22, more than a month after the first controversial speech in Rajasthan. The ECI concluded that the “utterances of the concerned star campaigners follow patterns and create narratives which can be damaging.”
The election body instructed the BJP president to ensure that its “star campaigners” refrain from making “speeches and statements which may divide society” along religious lines. Yet again, PM Modi was not mentioned by name. Critics of the ECI lamented the lack of transparency and accountability throughout this prolonged election process.
The Election Commission’s effectiveness has diminished, with its powers further weakened by changes that have made the Prime Minister’s Office more central to the appointment of commissioners.
By the sixth or seventh phase, the BJP wasn’t as rattled as it was in the beginning of its campaign. It had regained its confidence. PM Modi, in an interview, distanced himself from anti-Muslim rhetoric, even acted surprised, portraying himself as a statesman fair to all Indians. The communal stuff was gone along with the references to Adanis and Ambanis.
The ambitious claim of winning 400 seats reemerged, indicating the BJP’s regained confidence. As voter turnout recovered slightly and internal surveys suggested the election was going as planned, PM Modi once again declared “Modi Sabka Hai”.
