According to various exit polls, the Congress is projected to secure a significant number of seats in Punjab
June 1 marked the end of the seven phases of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, with voters in Punjab casting their votes to decide the future of candidates across the state’s 13 parliamentary constituencies. This year’s election in Punjab featured a fierce four-way contest between the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Congress, and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)
According to various exit polls, the Congress is projected to secure a significant number of seats in Punjab. The News18 Mega Exit Poll predicts that the Congress will win 8-10 seats, while the India Today Axis My India exit poll forecasts 7-9 seats. These projections suggest that Congress will perform similarly to their 2019 results.
The BJP, which contested the Punjab elections independently for the first time in 25 years, is expected to win 2-4 seats according to both News18 and India Today exit polls. This shift indicates a tangible change in the state’s political vista, reflecting growing support for the BJP.
The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is anticipated to have a poor showing. News18 predicts AAP will secure 0-1 seat, while the India Today poll suggests they may get 0-2 seats. This indicates a significant decline in AAP’s influence in Punjab, marking a departure from previous election performances.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), once a dominant force in Punjab, is not expected to win any seats according to the exit polls. This marks a continuing trend of declining support for the party in recent years.
Other parties in Punjab are projected to win 0-1 seats, indicating limited influence in the state’s political sphere. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has also entered the fray for the first time, fielding candidates for selected seats.
In Amritsar, the BJP fielded former Indian Ambassador to the US, Taranjeet Singh Sandhu. In Patiala, Preneet Kaur of the BJP, wife of former Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, competed against candidates from Congress and AAP.
The counting of votes for Punjab’s 13 seats, along with the remaining 530 seats across the country, is scheduled for June 4, as per the Election Commission of India. Out of the total 545 seats in Parliament, polling took place across 543 seats, with the remaining two seats reserved for nominated representatives of the Anglo-Indian community if deemed necessary by the President.
Exit polls provide predictions based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after casting their votes. These predictions aim to reflect public sentiment and electoral trends before the actual results are announced.
In the 2019 elections, Congress emerged victorious in eight out of the 13 seats in Punjab, while BJP, SAD, and AAP secured the remaining five. In 2014, the results were more dispersed, with SAD and AAP each winning four seats, Congress three, and BJP two.
In 2019, India Today-Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya were among the most accurate, predicting over 350 seats for the NDA and around 95 for the UPA. However, Times Now-VMR’s prediction of around 306 seats for NDA and nearly 130 for UPA was less accurate.
After the 2019 elections, the NDA won 353 seats, while the UPA secured only 91, with the BJP winning 303 seats and the Congress 52. Most exit polls underestimated the actual number of seats won by the NDA. In 2014, most exit polls accurately predicted the BJP-led NDA’s victory over the Congress-led UPA, with the BJP winning an absolute majority with 282 seats.
However, in 2004, all exit polls incorrectly predicted an NDA win, leading to a UPA victory. In 2019, despite a Modi wave, Congress won 8 out of 13 seats in Punjab, while AAP, which was projected to win no seats, managed to secure one. In 2014, the BJP-Akali Dal alliance won four seats against the projection of three and for the 2024 elections Congress is expected to win as the exit polls predict the victory gaining majority of seats in Punjab.
