How American Pollsters Miss The Trend In Favour Of Donald Trump
The US pollsters have yet again failed in reflecting on how voters would turnout for Donald Trump, who clinched victory defeating the Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump declared himself to be the winner as he surpasses the 270 mark which is required to win the oval office. As the votes are still counting, he is believed to surpass 300 electoral votes.
Several high-profile pollsters has predicted Kamala Harris as the winner of the election, Reportedly, eight out of ten prominent pollsters vouched Harris to win the race. Many data journalists, including Nate Silver believed Harris would win over the office. The failure resonates what happened in 2016, when they estimated Hilary Clinton to be the winner.
The pollsters said they had learned from their previous mistakes in 2016, and made corrections in their methods. But it appeared that they are wrong again.
Many of ABC News’ Ipsos Core Political polls showed Harris leading over three points ahead of Trump. In its latest polls released on November 4th, the Democrat had upper hand with a comfortable edge.
Leading polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight predicted Harris to cross the 270 magical mark over Trump, who was predicted to be at 268 electoral votes.
Just the day before the election, NPR and PBS News’ Marist Poll said Harris to lead Trump over four points. Forbes’ HarrisX poll, published on the same day, found the two candidates almost neck and neck in a “dead heat”, and estimated Harris to be up by one point that Trump.
FiveThirtyEight had predicted Harris to win over 270 to 268. It also failed to predict the outcome in 2016 when it projected Clinton to win 302 to 235.
At the same time, these pollsters had accurately predicted Joe Biden’s win in 2020.
It appears that the pollsters still haven’t got the idea of how Trump’s appeal to voters works.
