After the election result of India’s second-largest state was declared, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance appears decimated, suffering crushing defeat against the massive victory by the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The BJP has emerged as the single biggest party, winning 132 seats out of 288, while the Congress, which crowned itself as the largest party during the recently held Lok Sabha elections by securing 13 seats out of 48, was reduced to only 16 seats.

Much like the Haryana assembly election result, the Maharashtra poll outcome was a shocker to the grand old party, its allies and many political observers as well. But the pollsters and the media houses – may be learning from their previous mistakes – had predicted an edge for the saffron camp in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The exit polls for Jharkhand however proved quite opposite.

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The reason why many feel surprised for the biggest electoral setback for the Mahayuti alliance, and especially for the Congress party in Maharashtra, is the result of the recent Lok Sabha elections. MVA members express their astonishment over the change in people’s mandate within months. During the Lok Sabha elections, the MVA secured 31 out of 58 parliamentary seats, making the opposition coalition confident of a spectacular victory in the assembly election.

Key Factors For Congress-led MVA’s Debacle In Maharashtra 

Similar to the Haryana result analysis, many have blamed the opposition alliance’s overconfidence after its victory in the Lok Sabha elections from the state. Taking the voters for granted, the members of the MVA spent more time in seat-sharing discussions while fighting among themselves for securing more constituencies. There are opinions that the seat sharing was not efficient, as the Shiv Sena UBT, which had a relative sluggish performance in the Lok Sabha election, insisted on more seats, resulting in the party vying for 98 seats, allegedly to stake claim for the chief ministerial post.

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The Sharad Pawar’s NCP refused to declare Uddhav Thackeray as the MVA’s chief ministerial candidate, while eyeing the position for his camp. The Congress was also emboldened to claim the chief ministerial post by emerging as the single biggest party during the Lok Sabha elections. The confidence among leaders like Balasaheb Thorat and Nana Patole, who fantasised about becoming the chief minister, thinking that the Congress would emerge as the largest party, also suffered setbacks. While Thorat was defeated by a remarkable margin, the party chief Patole managed to win by a mere around 200 votes. The former chief minister and Congress bigwig Prithviraj Chavan, three-time MLA Amit Deshmukh, among other prominent Congress figures, also lost by massive margin. The decimation of the Congress springhouses—though there are allegations regarding voting fairness—has surprised many.

Sheela Bhatt, one of the political observers and columnists of the prominent national dailies, says the saffron party’s victory was much deeper. She opined that the Modi-Shah bloc has blasted forts of Congress’s regional satraps, suggesting that they could cut the regional powers to size two Shivsena and two NCP. Decimating the regional powers, the BJP has gained control over Maharashtra for the first time in history, which was unthinkable even in 2014, according to Bhatt.

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In stark contrast to the Lok Sabha result, the race for supremacy showed Ajit Pawar’s NCP making a grand comeback while Sharad Pawar got rejected by the voters. The Ajit Pawar faction contested 59 seats and won 41, while Sharad Pawar’s group contested 89 seats but secured only 10. Similarly, voters chose to stick with Shinde over Uddhav Thackeray, who had lost both his party and symbol. The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena contested 79 seats and won 57, while the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena contested 98 seats but only won 20.

Opposite to the Lok Sabha elections result, what worked for the saffron camp was the changed dynamics of the Maratha reservation issue. Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil had damaged Mahayuti’s performance significantly during the Lok Sabha polls, noting the failure of the ruling alliance to keep their promises. However, the BJP could calm down the Maratha community by careful social engineering. The party was silent about the chief ministerial candidate, raising hope among Marathis that Eknath Sinde would become the CM for another term and resolve their concerns. On the Aji Pawar-led NCP, there were several candidates from the Maratha community. Moreover, there were several constituencies in Mumbai where Gujaratis were crucial forces in determining the poll outcome, helping to raise the BJP’s tally.

“It’s happening when so much politics is being played over the ‘two Gujaratis are controlling the BJP’ argument. Importantly, Congress, including Rahul Gandhi, did everything to raise historical hurts of Gujarati versus Marathi sentiment,” Bhatt noted, adding that the assembly results have silenced the critics and have put responsibility for changing Maharashtra’s destiny in the hands of Prime Minister Modi.

Reading morning dailies day after political tsunami that almost nobody saw in Maharashtra one gets feeling that @BJP4India victory is much deeper than we think.
Modi-Shah has blasted forts of Congress’s regional satraps, have cut to size two Shivsena and two NCP.
Difficult to… pic.twitter.com/iG5c06o4T8

— Sheela Bhatt शीला भट्ट (@sheela2010) November 24, 2024

Additionally, the BJP, which had historically relied on the bhrahim votes the most, changed its poll strategies to woo the OBC community, a strong vote bank of the Congress party for years. Jarange Patil’s aggressive campaign for the Maratha reservation and targeting of the OBC also drove the latter community to the BJP camp. To take back the Dalit support it lost during the general election, the BJP could convince them that the Congress was misleading them, stating that their reservations and quotas were under threat.

Last but not least, the consolidation of Hindu votes. The BJP reportedly worked closely with the RSS and its affiliate groups, including the local clerics, to ensure the votes of the community. The Hindu vote mobilization on the religious ideological lines helped the party to increase their poll prospects in constituencies. Several welfare schemes promised by the ruling alliance are also believed to have played a role in the massive victory of the Mahayuti.