Mahayuti Vs Maha Vikas Aghadi: Analysing The Poll Strategies
In Maharashtra, the 2024 General Election result posited a shift in poll strategies for two major alliances in the State—Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—in approaching Assembly polls. In the Lok Sabha election, the confidence of Mahayuti leaders received a huge setback as they managed to secure only 17 seats, while the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) garnered 30 out of 48 seats, posing a huge alarm for the former. The BJP and the Congress is in direct contest in 74 seats and it will decide who will form the government in Maharashtra.
Surprisingly, even after the backlash, instead of an aggressive approach, Mahayuti adopted a restrained election strategy for the Assembly election campaigns. They effectively targeted upon specific areas: farmer distress and rural crisis, women’s welfare, and regional pride. Realising that the anger over low prices on agricultural crops is reflected in the polls, the Eknath Shinde government soon introduced measures such as the electricity bill waiver, soy and cotton farmers were given Rs. 5,000 per hectare to cover the gap between the MSP and market price, and the removal of export duty to onion farmers.
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To win over the women voters in the country, the Mahayuti government came up with the flagship Mukhya Mantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana. Through this celebrated scheme, Rs. 1,500 per month is being given to 1.85 crore women aged 21 to 65 across the State. The government introduced the project soon after Lok Sabha polls, and within 45 days they transformed the scheme into reality. The success of the woman welfare scheme enabled the party in Madhya Pradesh to retain power against all the odds, and the BJP is anticipating the same in Maharashtra.
As Mahayuti focused on local issues, advancing regional pride is also significant. The people in Maharashtra have been longing for classical status for the Marathi language, which the Union government approved on October 3. The BJP believes that it would help in their campaign against Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. The Maratha reservation protest undoubtedly brought losses to the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha polls. Though the government agreed to the protestors demand, any decisive step has not taken yet. Manoj Jarange Patil, face of the Maratha reservation protest, has taken an aggressive ‘anti-BJP’ stance, and as the party is anticipating the wrath of Marathas, they are focusing on the consolidation of OBC votes, formulating non-Maratha Hindu support. Besides, the government has given support for the OBC counter-protest against Marathas in the State.
Interestingly, the BJP also abstained from attacking Maratha leaders, and the party came to know that the move suffered huge grassroot backlash in the Lok Sabha election. However, the communal polarisation angles were not avoided by the BJP, even though communal politics is not entirely sold to other alliance leaders evaluating the Maharashtra’s socio-political landscape. Modi talked about the controversial “Ek Hai to Safe Hai” slogan during his campaign, with Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis calling the upcoming polls “Dharmayuddh,” and Muslim hatred was sold using the term “Vote Jehad,” referring to the Muslim bloc voting.
Maha Vikas Aghadi
The MVA involving Congress and the alliance partners is focusing on larger issues comprising socio-political implications. They addressed the shifting of large industries to Gujarat as “injustice,” and it aggravates the unemployment crisis in the State. During the campaigns, Congress highlighted the Vedanta Foxconn, Tata-Airbus, bulk drug park, submarine tourism projects, and several IT companies were shifted to Gujarat. Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi stated that projects worth Rs 7 lakh crore, with a potential of 5 lakh jobs, have been moved to Gujarat or other states. The allegation of industry exodus to Gujarat was actively taken by the MVA leaders during their campaigns.
In a press conference, Gandhi decoded the communal slogan “Ek Hai to Safe Hai” by targeting PM Modi and industrialist Gautam Adani. Showing the picture of both, Gandhi said, “Both Modi and Adani are ‘ek hain'”. With the support of PM Modi, the Mahayuti government has transferred Dharavi land to Adani, and the entire government machinery worked to ensure it was done smoothly, the Congress leader alleged. Since the Ladki Bahin scheme will give edge to Mahayuti, the MVA in their manifesto promises Rs 3,000 per month to women under the Mahalaxmi scheme. To alleviate the unemployment crisis, 2,50,000 government jobs and 1.2 million private sector positions are also being offered. As the Mahayuti is riding on welfare schemes, MVA makes sure that their poll promises are interesting and compelling enough.
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The MVA leaders have abstained from placing remarks on the ongoing Maratha agitation and Maratha-OBC conflict. According to political analysts, Manoj Jarange-Patil’s decision not to contest in polls is going to favour MVA since anti-BJP vote banks will not be scattered. As Mahayuti is going for non-Maratha Hindu votes, the Congress is working on their DMK (Dalit-Muslim-Kunbi) formula. The BJP’s “Vote Jehad” narrative could also further alienate Muslims from the Mahayuti. During the electioneering, Rahul Gandhi held “Samvidhan Samman Sammelan” at Nagpur on November 6, with an intention to garner Dalit votes in the State. The agricultural and rise in prices have also posed the tribal community to distance themselves from the BJP in Lok Sabha polls, and the MVA hopes to secure their votes as well.
The split in NCP and Shiv Sena has not only fractured the political landscape of Maharashtra but the electorates’ perception towards politics as well. The sympathy factor over the Sharad Pawar group and Thackeray Sena for splitting their respective parties has worked for them in Lok Sabha polls. Since the defection, Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have been vigorously pushing the “Gaddari” (betrayal) narrative. During the campaigns, both leaders repeatedly request the voters to oust the “traitors,” presenting the split as an attack on Maharashtra’s pride. Though election symbols went to rebel groups, the results will tell which faction is the’real’ Shiv Sena and NCP.
