Study Says Arctic Ocean To Be Ice-Free In Next Three Years (image-pixabay)

A new study has revealed that the Arctic Ocean will see its first ice-free summer days as early as 2027. This means that the Arctic sea will see for the first time its full ice melted as early as 2027.

The study published in the journal Nature Communications on December 3 has revealed the approaching grim milestone. Using computer models to investigate when the Arctic might experience its first ice-free day, Climatologists from Colorado University (CU) Boulder and the University of Gothenburg tried to investigate when the Arctic will experience its first ice-free day. The ‘ice-free’ refers to the sea ice area which is reduced to 1 million square kilometers or less.

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Scientists have used hundreds of climate simulation projects to change between 2023 and 2100. This research suggested that the Arctic will be ice-free within nine to 20 years. As per NASA data, the ice in the Arctic Sea is shrinking by over 12% per decade when compared to the 1981-2010 average.

The ice-free Arctic would increase upper ocean warming and will accelerate sea ice loss, exacerbating climate change. The new study shows that the ice-free period would last from one to 71 days, with an average of 25 days.

“The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically. But it will show that we’ve fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions,” said study co-author Alexandra Jahn.

Sea ice plays a crucial role in cooling the planet by reflecting the sun’s energy back into space, a process known as the albedo effect. But if the ice melts, darker ocean water will be exposed, which will absorb more sunlight and accelerate warming.

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For the last 46 years, satellites have consistently recorded increased melting during the summer and reduced ice formation in the winter.
Scientists now say that despite the dire situation, the reduction in carbon dioxide emission might help in the delay of the first ice-free day and its impact.

If the warming levels are kept below the Paris Agreement target of 1.5°C of global warming, the ice-free days could be potentially avoided.