An internal Congress survey in Maharashtra reveals a pattern similar to the recent Lok Sabha elections. Early indications suggest the Congress could emerge as the largest party in the 288-member state Assembly, potentially securing over 80 seats.

The competition for second place is between the BJP and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. The Shiv Sena factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde are contending for third place. Deputy CM Ajit Pawar’s NCP is predicted to repeat its underwhelming Lok Sabha performance.

The early projections also show the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, leading against the ruling Mahayuti coalition, composed of the BJP, Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP.

The MVA is expected to win 165 of the 288 Assembly seats, surpassing the 144-seat threshold needed to form a government, as reported by the Times of India.

The findings of the survey also highlight the MVA’s strong position in Nagpur, Amravati, Marathwada, and western Maharashtra, while the Mahayuti is expected to lead in Mumbai, Konkan, and north Maharashtra regions.

The Congress is sensing a huge opportunity for a comeback in Maharashtra, having shed some ineffective leaders and rejuvenated its base. The impressive Lok Sabha performance has also given a boost to the cadre. Former Chief Ministers, such as Prithviraj Chavan, are now hoping to be back in the top role.

In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP was the largest party with 105 seats, while Shiv Sena won 56. Congress secured 44 seats, and the undivided NCP obtained 54 seats. Shiv Sena broke up with the BJP over the chief minister’s post and aligned with Congress and NCP. The MVA then formed a government under Uddhav Thackeray.

However, a rebellion within Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, reduced the MVA government to a minority. Uddhav Thackeray resigned, and the BJP, supported by Shinde’s faction, formed a new government with Eknath Shinde as the chief minister and Devendra Fadnavis as his deputy. Similarly, a rebellion in the NCP saw Ajit Pawar and a faction of MLAs join the NDA. Ajit Pawar was appointed Deputy CM alongside Fadnavis.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the MVA won 31 of 48 seats in Maharashtra. If this performance translates to the Assembly, the MVA could secure 188 of 288 seats.

The MVA partners are optimistic about replicating their Lok Sabha success in the Assembly elections and are confident of achieving a clear majority. Seat-sharing discussions among MVA allies are set to begin soon in Mumbai for the elections scheduled for October-November this year.