Will 'City Killer' Asteroid Hit India In 2032?

Scientists on Earth have been on high alert since the news spread that a massive asteroid, ominously dubbed a “city-killer”, is hurtling towards Earth with alarming speed. The cosmic intruder, measuring between 40 and 100 meters in width, has more than 1% chance of colliding with the Earth.

The asteroid is predicted to hit the Earth in less than eight years. NASA, with the help of the James Webb Space Telescope, is tracking its orbit.

The asteroid, widely known as the “city-killer,” was first detected in December, and according to the European Space Agency, its odds of hitting our planet have slightly increased since then.

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The asteroid named 2024 YR4 has a 1 in 43 chance of hitting the Earth in 2023, to everyone’s surprise, India might also be one of the places it could hit. However, as per the recent analysis, the chances of their impact are slim, however, the situation is still significant enough to warrant the attention of the global planetary defense community.

Announcing the increase in the possibility of the asteroid hitting the planet, the NASA Asteroid Watch posted on X last week, “While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1 percent to a 2.3 percent chance on 22 December 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known”.

Considering the size of the asteroid, it isn’t big enough to destroy the entire world, but as the name suggests, the asteroid could be a “city killer”. A similar-sized-asteroid in 1908 had earlier struck a remote Siberian forest and had caused devastation across 800 miles. However, the event garnered little attention event with Tsarist Russia and much less outside.

What are asteroids? Asteroids are rocky elements left over from the early formation of the solar system. Their orbits are not well-defined. Due to the existing gravitational pulls of the larger planets, these asteroids may cross over Earth’s orbit resulting in a potential collision.

Though 2024 Y24 can be categorized as non-harmful, the official communication from NASA confirmed that it would continue to monitor the risk and the current risk percentage may continue to rise.

Now, analysing the impact of the asteroid strikes the earth, the space agencies have assigned a Level 3 rating out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. This scale is a tool that is used for categorising potential Earth impact events. And as per Level 3, it is stated that, “A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.

Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0; attention by public and by public officials is merited if the “encounter is less than a decade away”.

However, it has to be noted that the level of destruction can only be considered according to the place where it strike. For instance, if the 1908 destruction had taken place in the major city rather than a remote forest, the impact could have been much worse than one could imagine.

To know the impact, it is necessary to understand the size of the asteroid. For this, astronomers are making use of the James Webb Space Telescope in order to study the infrared light that 2024 YR4 emits. Webb’s Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) instrument will be used to get a more precise estimate of the size of the asteroid.

The B612 Asteroid Institute mapping out possible scenarios of YR4 hitting the earth had drawn out the possibility of the asteroid hitting India as well. The map created by Lu’s team showed that YR4’s trajectory is largely around the equator, with some Caribbean countries, Central Africa and India being the main potential targets.

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NASA’s PDCO continues to search for and monitor NEOs that come within 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit. “A collision of a NEO with Earth is the only natural disaster we now know how humanity could completely prevent,” said NASA Planetary Defense Officer Lindley Johnson. “We must keep searching for what we know is still out there, and we must continue to research and test Planetary Defense technologies and capabilities that could one day protect our planet’s inhabitants from a devastating event.”

In conclusion, given all the available data and studies, it does not seem wise to rule out the possibility of a disaster completely. For example, in Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence’s 2021 apocalyptic film Don’t Look Up, there was only a 2.3 percent chance of the scenario becoming real, while NASA’s Asteroid Watch has provided a 1 in 43 chance of a city-killer asteroid.