As the night sky over Tehran is routinely ignited by the flash of American and Israeli munitions, a singular, high-stakes question looms over the Pentagon and the Kirya: Will the Islamic Republic crumble? To many in the West, the heavy “carpet bombing” of Iranian cities and the reported decapitation of its top leadership suggest a “house of cards” scenario—a state held together by a single thread that, once cut, will trigger an immediate collapse.
However, according to Professor A.K. Ramakrishnan, one of the foremost experts on West Asian affairs, this is a dangerous miscalculation. In a profound and wide-ranging dialogue for Timeline Conversations, the former JNU and Jamia Millia Islamia professor warned that the Iranian state is not the fragile monolith Western planners imagine it to be. Instead, it is a “complex entity” with nearly half a century of institutional resilience, a sophisticated power-sharing apparatus, and a population that, while critical of its rulers, remains fiercely nationalistic when under fire from external powers.
The Myth of the “One-Man State”
The central premise of the current US-Israeli military strategy appears to be that the removal of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would leave a terminal vacuum. Professor Ramakrishnan argues this ignores forty-seven years of constitutional evolution.
“The system is a complex entity in Iran. It is not as person-dominated as the Americans and the Israelis think,” Ramakrishnan observed. He pointed out that the Islamic Republic has built a robust transition mechanism to survive such eventualities. According to the Iranian constitution, a three-member council—comprising the President, the Chief Justice, and a senior cleric—is mandated to manage the transition.
Furthermore, the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics elected for eight-year terms, is already in motion to select a successor. While rumours circulate regarding the nomination of the late Ayatollah’s son, Mojtaba, the Professor emphasized that the process itself is the safeguard. “Even though the Supreme Leader is the most significant figure, there is a procedure for transition. That process is on, and that is the most important thing for the state’s survival.”
Hardliners, Reformists, and the “Pezeshkian Paradox”
To the outside observer, the Iranian government is often painted as a singular, “hardline” block. Ramakrishnan, however, details a vibrant, if tense, ideological spectrum within the establishment. Currently, Iran is led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, a self-described “reformist” who has attempted to navigate the narrow space between popular demands for freedom and the conservative religious guardrails.
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This internal friction — the push and pull between the reformist movement (echoing the 2009 Green Movement and more recent protests over women’s rights) and the conservative “Khomeini tradition”—is not necessarily a weakness in times of war. “You have both the so-called hardliners and the reformists co-existing in the political system,” Ramakrishnan explained. Even within the clergy, there are “liberals,” such as the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, who do not fit the Western stereotype of the rigid theocrat.
This diversity means that “regime change” involves more than just toppling a dictator; it involves dismantling an intricate web of competing but ultimately system-loyal factions.
“They are Destroying Our Country”: The Human Cost
While the tactical successes of the aerial campaign are touted in Washington, the human reality on the ground in Tehran is “dire.” Professor Ramakrishnan shared a poignant anecdote from a colleague in an Iranian university, who described the terror of the ongoing carpet bombing.
“She told me, ‘They are destroying our country,'” Ramakrishnan recounted. This sentiment is crucial to understanding why the Western hope for a popular uprising might be misplaced. For decades, the Iranian people have been squeezed by sanctions and high inflation. Now, they are facing a war that has not spared hospitals, schools—including a widely reported strike on a girls’ school—or residential districts.
“For people who are critical of the government, when it comes to an attack on your nation, other sentiments work,” the Professor noted. “The imposition of a pro-Israeli, pro-US government from above… I doubt it will be welcomed by the Iranian people.”
