US Presidential Election: What Is A Swing State; How Harris, Trump Plan To Turn Tables
Washington DC, US: One thing to note during the US election is that the President is not elected by the citizens. The electors chosen during the polling elect the President. The system is called Electoral College. The US Constitution grants each state a number of electors based on the combined total of the states’ delegates in the Senate and House of Representatives.
There are total of 538 electoral college votes, and the Presidential candidate needs to win 270 votes to make it to the Oval office. The number of Electoral College changes from three in the District of Columbia to 55 in California.
The Swing states determine the result of the election, and are referred to as the battle ground states or the purple states. While most of the states vote consistently along its parties, the Swing states tend to sway away from that path.
Out 50 states of America, 38 voted for the party since the 2000 to 2016.
The term Swing states was first used by the New York Times in 1936, while Franklin D. Roosevelt was campaigning in the West. The term started to grab headlines during 2000 election while reporting for states like Florida.
Also Read: People Lost Trust In US Media: Jeff Bezos Defends The Post’s Decision On Candidates’ Endorsement
The Swing states are extremely important that the candidates spent 75 percent or more of their campaign budgets on wooing voters of the state. The candidates almost exclusively visit swing states on the campaign trail, often skipping other states entirely unless they’re fundraising.
The factors that can create a Swing state ranges from population changes to ideological polarisation. It has been found that the Urban areas tend to vote for Democrats and rural areas tend to vote for Republicans. When the habitants of liberal-leaning coasts or major cities to settle in smaller cities or more rural areas, they can alter the balance between parties.
Seven Key States:
There are seven swing states in the ongoing battle for White House, including Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona.
Georgia:
In Georgia, Republican candidate Donald Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton over 51% to 49% in 2016. In 2020, President Joe Biden had a thread-width gain over Trump with 49.5% to 49.3 %.
Biden was the first Democrat to win the state since 1992. The prosecutors of the peach state indicted Trump in an election interference case after he called state officials urging them to “find” enough votes to overturn Biden’s narrow 2020 victory. It is believed that the demographic changes in the state is likely to benefit Harris, who had managed to woo minority voter across the state.
North Carolina:
In 2016, Trump beat Clinton on 50.5% to 46.8%. In 2020, Trump beat Biden over 50.1% to 48.7%.
Since 1980, Democratic had won the state only once. However, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris believes that things might change this year.
Also Read: America Is Going To Reach Heights That It Has Never Seen Before If Trump Wins: Elon Musk
Pennsylvania:
In 2016, Trump gained over Clinton on 48.6% to 47.9%. In 2020, Biden beat Trump on 50% to 48.8%.
Once the state was a Democratic strong hold. However, tides changed. For decades the state grappled with a steady decline in industrial manufacturing base.
Trump and Harris held their first and only presidential debate. Trump also faced assassination attempt at his rally in July, He is eyeing the rural white population and warning that migrants are overwhelming small towns. Harris is touting the recent infrastructure wins. She outlined plans to invest over US$100 billion in manufacturing.
Michigan:
Trump beat Clinton 47.6% to 47.4% in 2016. And in 2020, Biden beat Trump 50.6% to 47.8%.
A former Democratic stronghold, Michigan was overturned by Trump in 2016. Though Biden returned the Democratic stature, Harris risks losing the support of a 200,000-strong Arab-American community that has denounced Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
Wisconsin:
Trump won against Clinton with 0.8% in 2016. Trump had 47.8%, and Clinton had 47%. In 2020, Biden beat Trump on 49.6% to 48.9%.
Trump won the state against Clinton, but Biden took in back in 2020. Donald Trump believes that the state is winnable. His party has held its summer national convention there. Though Trump had an upper hand earlier, Harris caught up really quick.
Nevada:
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump on 47.9% to 45.5%. In 2020, Biden won against Trump on 501% to 47.7%.
The state has not voted for a Republican since 2004. However, the party, eyeing the Hispanic voters, believes that table can be turned. Though Trump held an upper hand against Joe Biden earlier, within weeks of becoming candidate, Harris took up. She promoted her economic plans to help small businesses and combat inflation.
Arizona:
Trump beat Clinton on 49% to 45.5% in 2016, and in 2020, Biden beta Trump on 49.4% to 49.1%.
The state had one of the tightest competitions in 2020, with Joe Biden winning with 0.3 % votes. This time, Trump believes that people’s frustration over Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy will swing Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico to his favour.
Kamala Harris visited the Arizona’s border in September and vowed to crack down on migration and work on reviving last year’s bipartisan border bill, which she said Trump “tanked” for political purposes.
