'Earth's Next Ice Age In About 11,000 Years, If Climate Change Is Absent': Science Research
According to a newly published study in Science, the Earth’s next ice age is expected to begin in nearly 11,000 years unless human-caused global warming disrupts the natural cycles. The study analyzed how the subtle shifts in Earth’s orbit around the Sun have historically triggered massive climate changes.
The research team examined a million-year record of climate change focusing on land-based ice sheets across the Northern Hemisphere and deep ocean temperatures. They paired the data with small but cyclical variations in Earth’s orbital patterns.
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According to the lead author, Stephen Barker, professor at Cardiff University, in paleoclimate research, there had been a difficulty in answering how small changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun results in the large shifts between glacial and interglacial states.
Earth has alternated between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods, with the last glaciation ending nearly 11,700 years ago. This transition marks the beginning of the Holocene epoch, an era of climate stability that resulted in early human settlements and the development of human societies.
Scientists have so far been unable to pinpoint the orbital parameters responsible for starting and ending the glacial cycles. Barker said that the key breakthrough came from analyzing the ‘shape’ of the ancient climate record rather than just the timing of ice age transitions. The shape of the climate record shows the curves of how temperatures rose and fell over time.
The present research focused on three aspects – tilt, wobble and the shape fo Earth’s orbit around the Sun – and how they interact to drive ice age cycles over the past 900,000 years.
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Barker said that without the Industrial Revolution, assuming fossil fuels had never been burned, “we would expect a glaciation to occur within the next 11,000 years, and it would end in 66,000 years’ time.”
The research team now aims to find the long-term impact of human-driven climate change and how it may reshape the planet’s natural climate cycles.
