How Correct Are Exit Poll Results? All The Times When They Went Wrong

As exit polls predicted a massive advantage for the saffron party yesterday, with most of them anticipating over 350 seats for the BJP, here is an analysis of the accuracy of exit polls held in India after 2000s. Exit poll results are calculated based on interviews with voters right after they exit the polling stations after using their franchises.

Exit polls have proven right many times as they often predict the country’s general political inclination at the time of voting. In 2019, most of the exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led NDA would return to power.

Notably, the exit poll results have also proven to be sharply different from the actual election results several times. As people in the world’s largest democracy are eagerly waiting for their actual political fate on June 4, here are the some instances where exit poll predictions contrasted with actual results.

2004 Lok Sabha Elections

During the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, most of the exit polls predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP-led NDA banking on the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s popularity. The government, with its victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan assembly elections just before the general elections, was convinced of a massive majority and had called for early elections with the slogan “India Shining.”

Adding confidence further, the exit poll results forecast around 275 seats for the saffron party. Notably, proving the exit polls wrong, the Congress party won 216 seats, while the NDA trailed behind with only 187 seats. The grand old party then continued till 2014.

2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections

During the 2017 assembly elections, most of the exit polls had predicted a hung assembly, with a considerable dip in the vote share of the NDA due to the demonetizations announced by the BJP government at the Centre in 2016. However, the actual result proved the exit polls wrong, with the BJP winning an overwhelming 325 seats from the state.

2015 Bihar Assembly Elections 

During the 2015 Bihar assembly elections, pushing the exit poll result aside, the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance emerged victorious, with RJD being the largest party. The exit polls forecast none would get a clear majority, noting the closely contested election in the state. However, the decisive victory of the JD-JDU-Congress alliance showed exit poll can many times be wrong.

2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections

While the exit poll results anticipated an easy and comfortable victory for the Congress in Chhattisgarh, the BJP surprisingly wrested power from the Congress which had secured a landslide victory in 2018, ending the 15-year- rule of the saffron party. Congress expected a similar wave in 2023 too. However, defying the poll predictions and exit polls, the saffron party gained the Tribal dominant state with an absolute majority securing 54 seats.

2015 Delhi Assembly Elections 

During the Delhi Assembly election 2015, though most of the exit polls predicted a majority for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the margin of the AAP was far away from the predictions. The Arvind Kejriwal-led party won a gigantic 67 out of 70 seats, surpassing the exit poll calculations significantly.

2014 Lok Sabha Elections 

During 2014, exit polls had predicted a lack of absolute majority for the BJP-led NDA, forecasting seats between 261 and 289. However, when the actual result came out, the NDA exceeded the pollster’s predictions, winning 336 seats. The saffron party alone secured the majority mark. Congress, contrary to the exit polls predictions suffered a massive defeat.

2021 West Bengal Assembly Elections

During the 2021 assembly elections, many exit polls suggested that the BJP would make a significant lead in the state ahead of the Trinamool Congress. Notably, the Mamata Banerjee-led government won a massive 213 of the total 294 assembly seats, while the BJP became runner up, with a meagre 77 seats.

All the above-described examples that occurred post-2000s show the unpredictability of the exit poll result. Therefore, the actual result of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections scheduled to be released on June 4 could either be what the exit poll showed or quite opposite.