Lok Sabha Elections Results 2024: What The Pollsters And Experts Say

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections are a make-or-break situation for both the ruling NDA alliance led by BJP”s Narendra Modi and the Opposition INDIA alliance led by Rahul Gandhi“s Congress. After five phases of voting, elections have been completed for 427 seats. The BJP has already won the Surat Lok Sabha seat after all other contestants withdrew their nominations. Out of the total 543 seats, elections will be held for 115 seats in the upcoming sixth and seventh phases on May 25 and June 1, respectively. Political parties have already claimed in their campaign speeches that their alliances have achieved an absolute majority after the completion of the fifth phase. However, some important voices in the election prediction business have expressed their opinions (some vaguely) on the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections. In this long piece, Timeline is trying to gather what they have said to understand how the general elections in India are evolving.

(Disclaimer: Timeline does not subscribe to the claims made by these experts. These are their personal opinions shared on various platforms. Some predictions by these experts have turned out to be accurate, while others have not in the past. Readers are advised that these are merely opinions of people who have worked in the field of elections for a long time and not forecasts by Timeline. We believe in your intelligent decisions while voting.)

Prashant Kishor

Prashant Kishor, Election strategist

Prashant Kishor, a prominent election strategist, anticipates a return of the Modi-led BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He, while talking to NDTV, emphasised the importance of consistency in political analysis and points out that despite various expert opinions, he has consistently predicted BJP’s return over the past five months. Kishor notes that while there might be disappointment or unfulfilled aspirations among the public, there isn”t widespread anger against Prime Minister Modi, which is crucial for a significant electoral shift.

Kishor analyses the regional dynamics, highlighting that North and West India, with about 325 Lok Sabha seats, have been BJP strongholds since 2014. In contrast, the BJP has historically underperformed in the East and South, which account for around 225 seats, currently holding less than 50 of them. However, he predicts an increase in BJP’s vote share and seats in these regions.

Discussing BJP’s ambitious target of 370 seats, Kishor remarks that achieving even 275 seats would suffice for forming the government, as the majority mark is 272. He credits BJP and Modi for successfully shifting the electoral discourse from achieving a simple majority to targeting 370 seats, thereby gaining a strategic advantage. Ultimately, Kishor sees no substantial risk to BJP”s return to power, forecasting a likely victory that may not meet the 370-seat target but will secure a majority.

Ruchir Sharma

Ruchir Sharma, ace investor and author

Though he is not giving an exact number for the alliances in the Lok Sabha elections, Ruchir Sharma, an experienced investor and author, foresees a tight contest in Maharashtra. He predicts significant losses for BJP allies Ajit Pawar”s NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. Sharma has also highlighted poor performance of BJP allies in states like Bihar, Karnataka, and Maharashtra, with Andhra Pradesh being the exception, as he was talking to India Today.

Sharma also pointed out the economic decline of Maharashtra, once India”s second richest state, which has now fallen out of the top ten. Outside the Golden Triangle of Mumbai-Nashik-Pune, the average income in Maharashtra is lower than the national average, marking a significant decline over the past decade and a half. He observed visible distress in places like Beed during his election trip, contrasting sharply with Karnataka, where per capita income has seen a remarkable rise in the same period.

In 2019, the BJP and the undivided Sena dominated Maharashtra, winning 41 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats. This year, BJP is contesting 28 seats in Maharashtra, 25 out of 28 in Karnataka, and 17 out of 40 in Bihar, with various allies contesting the remaining seats.

Sharma”s analysis suggests a challenging scenario for BJP and its allies, especially in Maharashtra, amidst a backdrop of economic decline and regional disparities.

Yogendra Yadav

Yogendra Yadav, Former Indian psephologist and politician

Yogendra Yadav, a former Indian psephologist and politician, predicts that the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will not surpass the 272-seat threshold needed to retain power in the upcoming 18th Lok Sabha elections. Yadav estimates that the BJP will secure a maximum of 233 seats, while the NDA as a whole will achieve 268 seats. This prediction, shared via a video on his social media accounts, is based on his recent travels across India and analysis of electoral trends.

Yadav explains that the NDA, which currently holds 353 seats in the Lok Sabha, will face significant losses in various states. He forecasts a loss of 10 seats in Karnataka, 20 in Maharashtra, and 10 across Gujarat and Rajasthan. The NDA is also expected to lose 10 seats collectively in Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Himachal Pradesh. Additionally, losses are projected in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand (10 seats), Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand (15 seats), and Bihar (15 seats). In West Bengal, the North-East, and other Union Territories, the NDA will see a decrease of 10 seats.

However, Yadav notes some gains for the NDA: an increase of five seats in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Telangana, and 10 seats in Andhra Pradesh with TDP”s support. Consequently, the BJP is predicted to lose 65 seats and its allies 15, leading to a final tally of 233 seats for the BJP and 268 for the NDA.

Sanjay Kumar

Sanjay Kumar, Co-Director of Lokniti-CSDS

Sanjay Kumar, Co-Director of Lokniti-CSDS, while talking to India Today, predicted that the BJP and its allies will win close to 300 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, falling short of the 370-seat target and making the possibility of 400 seats remote. According to him, the BJP may surpass the 272-seat majority mark, though not by a significant margin, indicating a more competitive election compared to 2019. Kumar also anticipates an improvement in Congress”s seat tally from the previous election.

The Lokniti-CSDS pre-poll survey conducted in April 2024 supports this outlook, showing the BJP and its allies holding a comfortable 12-percentage-point lead over the Opposition INDIA bloc. According to the survey, 46% of respondents support the NDA, while 34% favour Congress and its allies. The BJP alone enjoys 40% support, compared to Congress”s 21%, suggesting continuity in leadership with limited chances of an anti-incumbency wave.

The survey, which gathered responses from 10,019 individuals across 19 states, highlights favourable public sentiment towards the 10-year-old BJP government, with 42% praising its work, 18% content with its welfare schemes, and 10% believing in Narendra Modi”s charisma. Key issues like rising unemployment (32%) and price rise (20%) were cited as reasons for not re-electing the BJP. Modi remains the preferred choice for Prime Minister with 48% support, followed by Rahul Gandhi at 27%, while other leaders lag significantly.

Overall, Kumar”s analysis and the pre-poll survey suggest that the BJP-led NDA is poised for a strong performance, though not as dominant as in previous elections.

Rajdeep Sardesai

Rajdeep Sardesai, Senior Journalist

Senior journalist Rajdeep Sardesai believes the upcoming election will be significantly influenced by women and young voters. He notes that while men are more often interviewed, understanding women”s perspectives is crucial as they often remain in the background. Sardesai emphasizes the strong opinions of young voters, who are highly engaged with social media.

Sardesai, in an interaction with pollsters for his current employer India Today, predicted that the BJP will likely form the government, either through a coalition or by surpassing the 272-seat majority. He highlights that in the last two elections, the BJP has won 90% of the seats in direct contests against Congress. Without a better alternative from the Opposition, he doubts their ability to win key states nationally.

Pradeep Gupta

Pradeep Gupta
Chairman and Managing Director of AxisMyIndia

Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director of AxisMyIndia, shared nuanced insights into the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. In an interaction with Anjana Om Kashyap on Aaj Tak, he described the election as very interesting, emphasizing the importance of waiting until the last vote is cast. He highlighted that the contest revolves around the government”s claims and the opposition”s promises, with voters expressing their intentions through the voting process.

In a conversation with India Today, Gupta refrained from predicting seat numbers for the NDA and Congress, citing the ongoing polling phases and his profession”s demand for accuracy. He noted that unemployment and inflation have been pivotal issues for decades and will continue to be, stressing the importance of voter perception regarding which party is better equipped to address these challenges.