Nilambur Election Result: What A UDF Insider Said
As Nilambur awaits the result of its high-stakes by-election on 23 June, a senior United Democratic Front (UDF) insider has shared a detailed account of the alliance’s inner strategy, setbacks, and what’s at stake — both for the Congress-led front and its long-time ally, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML).
“In the last two elections, the League (IUML) was not active for the Congress candidate. When VV Prakash contested last time, a Congress faction even backstabbed him,” the insider revealed. “But this time, the entire Congress and UDF with an 101% active League cadre worked wholeheartedly for Arayadan Shoukath (UDF’s Congress candidate).”
Read also: Aryadan Shoukath Congress’ Candidate For Nilambur
The UDF is projecting a majority between 10,000 and 15,000 votes, and this insider believes that the presence of PV Anvar, the rebel independent candidate whose resignation as MLA after falling out with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan caused the bypolls, might actually benefit the UDF. “Anvar will take home some votes and 70 per cent of those will be of LDF. It seems like Anvar’s decision is a blessing in disguise for the UDF.”
The source also made a striking claim about Anvar’s legal troubles: “They [the LDF government] are just waiting for the results to come out so they can jail Anvar for tapping an SP’s phone.”
As for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign, the UDF doesn’t seem concerned. “People don’t even remember the BJP candidate’s name,” the insider quipped. “The development as claimed by LDF is not visible in the constituency even after years of rule.”
Despite the LDF deploying its full campaign machinery, the UDF believes it will replicate its success UDF candidates in the past from Palakkad and Thrikkakkara. “Yes, the entire government machinery was there. But mark my words — Palakkad and Thrikkakkara will repeat here. CPM won’t win.”
The insider also opened up about the internal debate within the Congress over bringing Anvar into the UDF fold. “We, the workers, could not understand why VD Satheeshan was so adamant. But when he explained his reasons in a leaders’ meeting, it became crystal clear. Anvar’s demands included full control of campaigning and strategy. So Satheeshan said goodbye.”
On a surprising note, the insider revealed that even UDF’s own candidate, Aryadan Shoukath, had at one point considered switching sides. “Yes, there was a possibility that Shoukath would have gone to LDF if he was denied a seat. VS Joy was out of the race considering that fact as well.”
The result of Nilambur is being seen as a turning point for the Congress-Muslim League alliance. “If Shoukath loses by any chance, the League’s future with the UDF will be in limbo. The League might consider jumping ship, especially with the possibility of LDF returning for a third term next year,” the insider warned. “And if Swaraj wins, there will be big blasts in the UDF and Congress. We might see the downfall of VD Satheeshan.”
He also dismissed LDF’s bench strength: “LDF lacks a second-rung leadership, especially youth leaders. Look, young leaders like Chandy Oommen, Shafi Parambil and Rahul Mankoottathil were the star attractions for UDF during the campaign. The Congress party has taken note fantastic campaign run by Chandy. People are still in that aura of Oommen Chandy.”
On the LDF’s strategy, he said: “They fully ignored Minister Riyas and KT Jaleel MLA. The NH collapse was one reason to ignore Riyas.”
He also made a strong claim about CPM candidate M Swaraj: “He will be rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat if he loses. That’s the deal.”
Read also: Bye-Election Schedule For 5 Assembly Constituencies Including Nilambur Announced
The insider believes there are deeper undercurrents in this election that may hurt the LDF. “The AP group of traditional Sunnis did not vote for Swaraj. There were two reasons — he didn’t visit their leader, AP Aboobacker Musliyar, and he was publicly critical of the group, which has traditionally backed the LDF.”
Adding to LDF’s troubles, a now-viral old video clip has resurfaced. “Swaraj, during the Thripunithura elections, said: ‘I belong to Thripunithura, not Nilambur.’ That’s not something voters here will forget easily.”
With such heavy implications for all parties involved, Nilambur’s result will not just decide a seat, but potentially redraw equations within Kerala’s political alliances.
