Potential Factors Influencing Haryana Assembly Elections: Is There Anti-Incumbency?

To conclude what are the key narratives that are going to shape Haryana assembly elections can, perhaps, be just assumptions, as predictions have many times proved wrong in Indian elections. However, poll results have often found resonance with prevalent social issues. As a state that has witnessed wrestlers protest, farmers outrage, youth’s fury over Agniveer, there were enough ground for inferring an anti-incumbency in Haryana.

Several potential damaging narratives are in place against the BJP government in Haryana in the assembly elections. One of the keys is the anger of farmers towards the BJP government. The Haryana government played a major role in containing the protest, particularly at the Singhu border between Haryana and Delhi. The government had taken measures against the farmers’ protest, causing lingering grudges among farmers towards the BJP government. The farmer group have also warned that the impacts of the protest will be seen in the Haryana elections.

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Apart from farmers protest, the outrage in connection with the Agniveer scheme can also send ripples during the elections. The young army aspirant remained opposed to the scheme. According to political commentator and author Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, people have not accepted the scheme, even though the government has tried to give paramilitary and government jobs, as it was not going to be sufficient.

Another factor that can be the defining the political narrative of Haryana is the sentiment of youth sports enthusiasts, which the state is known for. The wrestling figures protest against the BJP leader and their entry into politics might also reflect in the state elections. The key faces of the protest against the alleged sexual harassment by BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, Vinesh Phogat, and Bajrang Punia joined the Congress party, proving the grand old party a backing of Haryana’s sports community.

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According to Mukhopadhyay, wrestling holds deep cultural roots in Haryana, with almost every village having training wrestlers. “The young athletes, who look up to these wrestlers, may be difficult for the BJP to sway,” India Today quotes the author.

In addition, the replacing of long-serving chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini for gaining the support of the Saini caste community has also raised eyebrows within the party, kindling rebellions, internal dissents, and a lack of discipline. However, given the potential impact of the Haryana assembly elections in other upcoming state elections, the BJP is striving hard to retain the state for the third consecutive term. Prime Minister Modi reiterated that every village in Haryana has BJP wave, asserting the its victory for another term.