Trinamool Congress leader Saket Gokhale has urged the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to conduct a regulatory probe into alleged stock market manipulation via exit polls, particularly by Axis MyIndia. This call follows the massive disparity between exit poll forecasts and the actual Lok Sabha election results on June 4, resulting in substantial losses in the stock market.

Gokhale said that deliberately biased exit polls suggest potential large-scale stock market manipulation, warranting a thorough investigation.

“Crores of small & medium investors around India lost their hard-earned money due to stock market manipulation done through exit polls,” he tweeted.

His party colleague and former journalist Sagarika Ghose demanded punishment for pollsters. “If @PradeepGuptaAMI has been found guilty of using #exitpolls2024 for market manipulation, he will be prosecuted. This is an extremely serious charge. Small investors suffered trauma, parties were put through harassment. In any other country there would be a full inquiry. @AxisMyIndia must be brought before a parliamentary panel and be barred from exit polling for life,” she wrote on X.

In a letter to SEBI, Saket Gokhale explained, “Investors made massive profits on 03.06.2024 after the markets rose on the back of exit poll results. However, on 04.06.2024, investors suffered losses of over 31 lakh crore Le. 31 trillion. In the interest of protection of investors, it is important to determine if the India Today Axis MyIndia exit polls were rigged or intentionally skewed in favor of the BJP-led NDA which led to the unprecedented rally in the markets on 3rd June.”

“The exit polls were clearly manipulated to rally the stock market. Lakhs of crores of investors’ money was later wiped off after the markets crashed. There must be an investigation to determine if pollsters like Axis MyIndia intentionally inflated the exit polls for the BJP. This is important because Axis MyIndia also had BJP as a client,” the Rajya Sabha MP added.

An average of all exit polls predicted that NDA was getting more than 350 seats after which the Sensex and Nifty saw massive gains above 3% on June 3. The exit polls were way off mark as the BJP-led NDA won 293 seats leading to a market crashing by 6% on June 4. The markets are now on a recovery path as Narendra Modi is set to return as the prime minister for the third time with the help of allies, specifically TDP and JDU.

The India Today-Axis MyIndia poll predicted 361- 401 seats for the BJP-led NDA. The INDIA bloc is expected to win 131-166 seats, it said.  The same poll also predicted 26-31 seats for the BJP in West Bengal. However, the BJP could win only 12 seats in the state.

“A margin of error can be expected in the range of even 10-15% but a discrepancy of 116-158% is unfathomable. Moreover, it has been noticed that such glaring discrepancy between predictions and results was seen not only in West Bengal but also in several other states,” Gokhale’s letter to Sebi said.

Gokhale also pointed out that the Axis MyIndia was hired by BHP to conduct election surveys for the party and alleged a clear conflict of interest on part of the agency to be working for the BJP while also participating in exit polls without a clear and unequivocal disclosure of a glaring conflict of interest.