As the counting of votes for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections begins, all eyes are on whether the exit poll predictions will hold ground for the Narendra Modi-led NDA government, which is anticipated to return to power with a thumping majority. While the opposition’s INDIA bloc has dismissed the exit polls, the BJP is confident of easily crossing the majority mark and is already planning how to celebrate the win.

An aggregate of 12 exit polls on June 1 predicted the BJP’s return to power, with the ruling NDA alliance winning about 365 seats. A party or an alliance needs at least 272 seats to form a government in India.

All major exit polls have projected a resounding victory for the NDA, with the BJP expected to surpass its own 2019 tally of 303 seats. Specifically, the India Today-My Axis poll and Today’s Chanakya projected the NDA tally to exceed 400 seats. The ABP-CVoter poll estimated the NDA would secure between 353 and 383 seats, while Jan Ki Baat projected a win of 362 to 392 seats for the ruling alliance.

In 2019, all exit polls had underestimated the “Modi wave” as the NDA surged to 353 seats, with the BJP winning 303 seats alone. The opposition’s UPA managed only 93 seats, with the Congress securing 52 of these.

In 2009, the last time India saw a Congress-led government, an average of four exit polls that year predicted 195 seats for the UPA and 185 for the NDA. Ultimately, the UPA won 262 seats, compared to the NDA’s 158. Of these, the Congress secured 206 seats and the BJP 116.

Exit polls this time have also predicted significant breakthroughs for the BJP in Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the south, and substantial gains in Odisha. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP did not win a single seat in Tamil Nadu. While exit polls do not always get it right, most have predicted that the BJP will secure more seats than Mamata Banerjee’s TMC in West Bengal.

The BJP, which has been striving to make inroads into the South, is also projected to perform strongly in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, and achieve notable gains in Telangana.

Karnataka could be a surprise if the BJP repeats its 2019 dominance, when it won 27 of the 28 seats, despite the Congress’ spectacular win in the state Assembly elections last year. Telangana would also be a surprise if the exit polls hold true, given that the BJP has never been a major player there.

While the BJP has welcomed the exit poll predictions, the opposition has dismissed the forecasts, asserting that counting day will reveal a completely different picture. Following a meeting of the Opposition leaders part of the INDIA bloc, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge stated that the bloc would win at least 295 seats out of the total 543.

Congress veteran Sonia Gandhi expressed hope that the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections would be completely opposite to the exit poll predictions. “We have to wait, just wait and see,” Gandhi said.

Congress MP Shashi Tharoor also believed that the exit polls have overestimated the BJP’s performance. Calling the numbers “shocking,” Tharoor said that the exit polls “seem to bear no connection to the kind of feedback” he has been receiving from the ground.

Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 continued their bull run on Monday (June 3) amid strong investor sentiment following exit polls predicting the return of the PM Modi-led BJP government. The BSE Sensex closed 2,507 points, or 3.39 percent higher, at 76,468.78, while the Nifty 50 closed 733.20 points, or 3.25 percent higher, at 23,263.90.

The domestic indices opened at record highs, with the Nifty 50 advancing 3.58 percent, or 807.20 points, to 23,337.70, and the Sensex trading 2,621.98 points, or 3.55 percent higher, at 76,583.30. The Nifty Bank index, which saw its constituents among the top gainers, opened above 50,000 for the first time and closed nearly 2,000 points higher at 50,979.95.

Confident of a resounding victory, the BJP is planning a grand “political event” in addition to the official swearing-in ceremony of the new government, likely scheduled for the weekend. Sources indicate that preparations for the swearing-in ceremony at Rashtrapati Bhavan began last week, with the Central Public Works Department already at work. The “political event” is expected to take place at Bharat Mandapam or Kartavya Path on the same day as the swearing-in and is themed to showcase India’s cultural heritage, potentially featuring a sound-and-light show. It is anticipated to be attended by 8,000-10,000 people, including representatives of foreign governments.

The BJP, which had ambitiously targeted “400 plus” seats, rarely emphasised this during election rallies after the first phase of voting, but it resurfaced towards the final phases. It is interesting to note that in India’s electoral history, only once has a party crossed the 400-seat mark: the Congress won 414 seats (out of 541) in the Lok Sabha elections following Indira Gandhi’s assassination.

Even during the early years post-Independence, when the Congress was the dominant party, it never achieved such numbers, reaching only 371 seats between 1951-52 and 1977. After the Emergency, the Congress’s numbers fell to 154 seats, but it recovered to 353 seats by 1980. Rajiv Gandhi, hastily selected as interim Prime Minister after his mother’s assassination, led the government in 1984.

In the 2024 election, India set a world record with 64.2 crore voters, including 31.2 crore women, casting their ballots, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar announced on Monday. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, he stated that over 68,000 monitoring teams and 1.5 crore polling and security personnel were involved in the election process.