The arrest of Arvind Kejriwal not only threatens the AAP's Lok Sabha campaign but also poses significant challenges for governance in Delhi and the Assembly elections next year.The timing of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest on Thursday night couldn’t have been more challenging for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is already struggling with the absence of its top leadership. This development will likely impact both the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and the governance of the national capital.
Both AAP and the Congress, the lead actors of the INDIA bloc in Delhi, anticipate Kejriwal’s arrest to energise their political momentum in the Lok Sabha elections. Huge support by INDIA bloc parties for Kejriwal is expected to consolidate the anti-BJP vote. The arrest has also given a common cause to the alliance which has been divided by various faultlines. It will help the opposition parties iron out differences and put up a show of unity once again.
A senior Congress leader expressed confidence that Kejriwal’s arrest would bolster the prospects of the INDIA bloc in Delhi as well. Both parties share a common support base among slums, unauthorized colonies, and lower-middle-class households in the city. The arrest is expected to evoke a wave of sympathy, consolidating their voter base.
In a show of solidarity with their party’s ally, Delhi Congress president Arvinder Singh Lovely led a Congress delegation to Kejriwal’s residence last night. “The timing of these elections indicates the BJP’s fear of our alliance. Democracy is in danger. This happens in Pakistan, not in India,” Lovely told reproters.
With ambitions to expand its influence nationwide, the AAP has formed alliances with the Congress to contest the Lok Sabha polls in Delhi, Haryana, and Gujarat. Kejriwal holds a central role in the party’s campaign, serving as its star campaigner. However, the absence of senior leaders such as Manish Sisodia, Satyendar Jain, and Sanjay Singh is already being felt. The three top leaders are in prison in connection with the Delhi liquor policy case.
In Delhi, where the party is contesting on four seats, and in Gujarat, where it has candidates on two seats, the campaign revolves around Kejriwal. While the campaign in Punjab centres around state Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, Kejriwal frequently visited the state, where AAP is contesting all 13 seats without a Congress alliance.
With Arvind Kejriwal’s absence, the question arises: how will the party’s Lok Sabha campaign proceed? Earlier this week, Bharadwaj emphasised, “The face will be Arvind Kejriwal. He is the only face that people trust and love. The strategy will be formed once we reach that stage.”
Prior to Kejriwal’s arrest, there was a lingering hope within the party that he would not be detained, given his widespread popularity and mass appeal, particularly among the people of Delhi.
The BJP, which had been meticulously crafting a strategy over the past year to highlight “10 specific scams,” including the “DJB scam” for which Kejriwal has been summoned by the Enforcement Directorate, maintained that his arrest is purely a legal matter, devoid of political implications.
According to a source within the BJP, the party’s top brass is currently in consultations with legal experts, exploring various avenues to navigate the situation. Opposition parties fear Kejriwal’s arrest would give the Centre an excuse to impose President’s Rule in Delhi.
“The matter has now reached the courts, where if AAP continues to stick to its strategy of Kejriwal governing the city from jail, there is a window for us to argue for the President’s rule to avoid a constitutional crisis. The Centre has already stated on several occasions that since Delhi is the national capital, it needs more control over its functioning,” a source said.
The arrest of Kejriwal poses significant challenges for governance in Delhi and the Assembly elections next year. A senior AAP leader acknowledged the possibility of the Lieutenant Governor assuming control of the capital’s governance, stating, “The scenario of the Delhi Assembly being suspended indefinitely, with the L-G acting as the BJP’s proxy in city administration until the 2025 elections, is a genuine concern.”