Why South Indian Leaders Are Now Talking About More Children
Southern Indian leaders are beginning to rethink population control strategies, raising concerns about the implications of low fertility rates on political influence, economic stability, and social dynamics. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin have recently voiced their concerns about the shrinking population growth in the region, renewing a debate on whether it is time to reconsider India’s family planning policies.
Chandrababu Naidu, an ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has recently promised to bring a law allowing only those with more than two children to contest local polls in Andhra Pradesh. Earlier in August, his Cabinet had done away with the rule that prohibited people with more than two children from contesting local body polls in Andhra Pradesh.
Stalin and Naidu expressed concerns about their states’ demographic challenges. While Stalin humorously suggested increasing the number of children to counter a potential reduction in parliamentary seats, Naidu warned of the economic strain caused by an ageing population. Stalin, at a mass wedding in Chennai recently, referenced a Tamil saying from “Manamakkalukku” listing 16 forms of wealth, including children. Then he jokingly suggested aiming for 16 children per family.
A Shift from Two-Child Norm
For decades, India promoted the “two-child policy,” reinforced by slogans such as “Hum do, humare do” (We two, ours two). This effort, aimed at stabilising population growth, has led to a significant reduction in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) across the country. The TFR, which measures the average number of children per woman, has dropped to 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain population stability.
Southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala have been at the forefront of this decline, with their TFR averaging just 1.73—far below the national average. These states now face demographic challenges, including an ageing population, shrinking workforce, and potential political marginalisation.
Political Implications and Delimitation Concerns
The upcoming delimitation process, scheduled after the 2026 census, will reallocate parliamentary seats based on population data. States with higher population growth, primarily in the north, are expected to gain seats, while southern states with controlled growth risk losing political representation.
Naidu has expressed concerns that Andhra Pradesh may face disadvantages, with fewer representatives in Parliament and reduced access to central funds. Stalin’s comments echoed these worries.
Economic and Social Consequences of Low Fertility
Low fertility rates bring economic challenges, as seen in countries like Japan and China, where ageing populations burden healthcare systems and pensions. In southern India, the demographic shift is already underway, with many villages experiencing youth migration to cities, leaving behind an elderly population.
“Countries like Japan, China, and several European nations are facing the consequences of ageing populations, where a significant share of the population is elderly,” Naidu said on Saturday. India currently enjoys a demographic dividend, with over 40% of its population under the age of 25. However, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), this young population will decline in the coming decades, particularly in southern states. As a result, these regions will need to spend more on welfare programs for the elderly, straining their economies.
Calls for Incentivising Larger Families
To address these challenges, Naidu’s government has proposed reversing the two-child policy by scrapping the rule that barred individuals with more than two children from contesting local elections. He has also hinted at introducing legislation to encourage larger families by providing benefits to households with more children.
Similarly, Stalin has highlighted the unfairness of allocating parliamentary seats and central funds based solely on population figures, arguing that states like Tamil Nadu should not be penalised for their success in population control. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh supported these sentiments, calling for a fair formula to prevent southern states from losing representation and financial resources.
As India faces a critical juncture with the impending delimitation, leaders from southern states are advocating for policies that reflect both demographic realities and federal fairness. While promoting larger families may alleviate some immediate challenges, it also raises questions about sustainability and resource management in the long term.
