Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 VoteVibe Survey Findings Contradict Ground Reality
A recent pre-election survey conducted by VoteVibe has revealed a palpable sense of discontent among Kerala voters ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. The data points to a strong anti-incumbency wave against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), growing public appetite for political change, and a noticeable vacuum in leadership in some of the state’s principal alliances. However, the findings about the Chief Minister-choices contradict the ground reality in the state, especially the way the survey found preferences for Shashi Tharoor and others in UDF, and also the mention of MA Baby into the LDF list.
According to the findings, nearly half of the respondents – 47.9% -expressed a high degree of anti-incumbency sentiment towards Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s government, which has completed 9 years in power recently. This disenchantment appears to intensify with age, with 55+ voters showing 45% anti-incumbency compared to 37% among those aged 18 to 24. Notably, the sentiment is slightly stronger among women (43%) than men (39%), suggesting a gendered dissatisfaction with the current administration. This is the first time in the history of the Southern state that a government gets its second term, and reportedly many in the ruling alliance feel that the second term has been difficult for the alliance entirely.
Kerala assembly election 2026: Votevibe survey for LDF CM choice
Beyond general discontent with the government, as per the survey, there is also a strong undercurrent for local-level change. A striking 62% of respondents indicated they wanted to replace their sitting MLA, though they were split between sticking with the same party (28%) or opting for a different one (34%). In contrast, only 23% said they were content to keep things as they are. This trend aligns with the wider anti-incumbency mood and suggests that voters may be prepared to upend traditional loyalties in favour of newer alternatives.
When it comes to which political front voters trust to drive development in the state, the United Democratic Front (UDF) currently enjoys a lead with 38.9% of respondents expressing trust in them. The LDF lags behind at 27.8%, reflecting an 11-point deficit. Interestingly, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA, though not a traditional force in Kerala politics, has recorded a significant 23.1% trust level – a figure that places them within striking distance of the two principal coalitions.
Kerala assembly election 2026: Votevibe survey for UDF CM choice
Leadership remains a complex issue for both the UDF and LDF. Among UDF supporters, Shashi Tharoor is seen as the most promising leader, favoured by 28.3% of respondents which is a revelation in its own sense, especially the Congress cadre is staunchly against him after his recent political engagements including a delegation he led to foreign countries to breif them on Operation Sindoor.
However, in this VoteVibe survey, 27.1% from UDF remain uncertain, indicating a lack of consensus or strong leadership identity.
Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 VoteVibe Survey
As per this survey, the LDF fares worse on this front, with KK Shailaja emerging as the preferred leader at 24.2%, while the sitting Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan trails at just 17.5%. Alarmingly for the LDF, a significant 41.5% of respondents are undecided on leadership preference – a sign of deeper malaise within the ruling party’s ranks.
The broader implications of the survey suggest that Kerala may be on the verge of a political reordering. The anti-establishment mood is unmistakable, with dissatisfaction cutting across age groups and genders. The UDF, despite its leadership ambiguity, appears best positioned to benefit from this mood, presenting itself as the main alternative to the LDF. However, both fronts are under pressure to clarify their leadership pitch to consolidate voter trust.
