In 2019, while TDP won merely three seats, the BJP failed to secure any.
In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP, led by the dynamic duo of PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, has sealed a pact with the Nara Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Jana Sena, led by the charismatic actor-politician Pawan Kalyan.
Naidu has agreed to concede six, or 25%, of the 25 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP, despite its 1% vote share in a state predominantly polarised between the TDP and the ruling YSRCP. Meanwhile, the Jana Sena, with a 7% vote share, secured two Lok Sabha seats but a staggering 24 Assembly seats out of 175.
The TDP was part of the NDA until 2018 when Naidu, then Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, decided to withdraw over concerns regarding financial support for the state. Naidu had even joined hands with the Congress and shared dais in Delhi with Rahul Gandhi.
In 2019, the Lok Sabha elections witnessed the resounding triumph of the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP), securing 22 out of the 25 seats, relegating the TDP to merely three seats. The BJP and Congress failed to secure any seats in the state.
In the state elections, on the other hand, YSRCP secured 151 seats, TDP 23 seats, and Jana Sena one seat in the 175-member assembly. Despite contesting all seats in the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP failed to secure a single seat in the state.
Naidu”s decision to join the BJP-led NDA was not devoid of internal dissent within the TDP ranks. However, faced with the proposition from the BJP and mindful of the potential benefits, Naidu found it hard to resist. Experts see his decision as a shield against action by Enforcement Directorate, CBI and other central agencies. The backing from Delhi will also improve party funding.
For Naidu”s politically strong Kamma community, the upcoming 2024 elections represent a pivotal juncture. A defeat at this juncture could spell existential crisis, particularly with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Reddy”s relentless efforts to erode their influence. This urgency, despite the expected ramifications of alienating Muslim voters who lean towards the YSRCP, underscores the high stakes involved.
Despite Narendra Modi”s past conflicts with Naidu, the BJP”s decision to align with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh warrants scrutiny, especially considering Naidu”s acrimonious rhetoric against Modi leading up to the 2019 elections.
Two pivotal factors come into play. Firstly, internal assessments within the BJP suggest a potential shortfall in securing a simple majority, projecting around 225-250 seats in the forthcoming elections. This deficit and the self-set target of 400 seats explain the party”s imperative to forge new alliances, be it with the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha or the TDP in Andhra Pradesh.
While Jagan Reddy may support the BJP if the need arises, Naidu”s allegiance is less certain. Without a pre-election alliance, Naidu could gravitate towards the opposition INDIA bloc, making it prudent for the BJP to secure his support before the polls.
This strategic move may annoy Chief Minister Jagan, who has previously gone to great lengths to curry favor with the BJP, both inside and outside Parliament.
Meanwhile, amid speculation about potential vote transfers between the TDP, Jana Sena, and BJP, the electoral landscape revolves primarily around Jagan Reddy. While the opposition to Jagan stems from various quarters, including the upper castes and urban educated, who criticise his welfare-centric policies over developmental agendas, he enjoys solid support from the Dalits, beneficiaries of his welfare initiatives.
The battleground shifts to the Backward Classes (BCs), traditionally aligned with the TDP, amid Jagan”s efforts to court them and their historical rivalry with the Kapus, to which Pawan Kalyan belongs.
The BCs” stance regarding the inclusion of Kapus within their fold will be a pivotal factor in the upcoming elections, shaping Andhra Pradesh”s political landscape.
Regardless of whether Naidu emerges victorious or Jagan retains his grip on power, in either outcome, the BJP stands to gain, adding 25 Lok Sabha seats to the National Democratic Alliance.
