Will BJP Continue Its Dominance Over Madhya Pradesh This Lok Sabha Election?

The exit polls have predicted a clean sweep – around 28 to 29 seats – for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in Madhya Pradesh for the second time in the past five years. Based on the predictions of India Today-Axis My India, the state could well become, much like Gujarat, a BJP stronghold. With 29 Lok Sabha seats, Madhya Pradesh witnessed BJP’s landslide victory in 2014, bagging 27 seats but losing Chhindwara and Guna to the opposing Congress. In 2019, however, it regained Guna and secured victory over 28 seats.

What Is Working For The BJP?

In the 2023 assembly elections, the party won 163 seats out of the 230 with its campaign theme, “MP ke mann mein Modi, Modi ke mann mein MP.” With the added success of the party’s “Ladli Behna Scheme” introduced by Chouhan, the BJP ensured its success that year. Replaced after the assembly elections, Chouhan contested from one of the safest seats, Vidisha, in the general elections, while three-term MLA Yadav succeeded him.

Prior to the 18th Lok Sabha elections, the BJP dropped 11 of its sitting MPs in an attempt to fight anti-incumbency claims and has fielded new faces in constituencies such as Gwalior, Bhopal, Sidhi, Sagar, Vidisha, Balaghat, Chhindwara, Jabalpur, and more.

After a disappointing defeat in 2023, Congress replaced Kamal Nath with Jitu Patwari as the party’s state chief to bring younger faces to the forefront. But the new leadership faced another blow when the Congress’ Indore candidate, Akshay Bam, withdrew his nomination and joined the BJP.

While during the entire election campaigning process, Congress was led by party veterans Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh, the BJP wielded its ‘Modi brand’ with former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and current chief minister Mohan Yadav also playing important roles.

The biggest challenge for the BJP is to breach the citadel of Congress, Chhindwara, the sole seat that prevented the BJP from winning a clean sweep in 2019. Having been won nine times by former Chief Minister Kamal Nath in the past, the constituency has been put into the hands of his son and sitting MP Nakul Nath. However, if the exit poll predictions turn out to be true, Congress will lose its only stronghold over the seat, leaving the grand old party deep in trouble to regain its already dwindling voter base any time soon.

With the strategic choice of giving fresh faces new opportunities as well as banking on its established ‘Modi brand,’ the BJP government has solidified its victory numbers in Madhya Pradesh.