The exit polls presented a mixed picture, with some being more accurate than others
As the general elections for this term wrapped after the voters gave a shock treatment to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP, the NDA alliance is expected to form the “Modi 3.0” government for the next five years. With the results now declared, it’s time to evaluate the predictions and see which political pundits and exit polls were closest to the actual outcome.
The exit polls presented a mixed picture, with some being more accurate than others. India Today-Axis My India and NDTV poll of polls weren’t close to the actual count as they predicted a strong performance from the NDA side.
NDTV polls of polls forecast 365 seats for NDA, whereas the India bloc’s tally stood at 146 in lieu. In contrast, Dainik Bhaskar, a Hindi-language daily newspaper predicted the closest of all exit poll predictions as they prognosticated a count of 281-350 for BJP and 200 for the India alliance.
Republic Bharat-Matrize had broader ranges but still highlighted an NDA victory making a prediction of 353-368 seats for the BJP-led NDA government as they haven’t crossed even 300 in real.
Prominent election strategist Prashant Kishor, known for his exceptional political insights, anticipated a return of the Modi-led BJP in exit poll prediction.
He consistently predicted the BJP’s return to power, emphasising the party’s stronghold in North and West India and its growing influence in the East and South. Kishor’s analysis aligned well with the eventual outcome, highlighting his consistent accuracy over the past months.
Investor and author Ruchir Sharma foresaw a tight contest in Maharashtra and significant challenges for BJP allies. His observations on the economic decline in Maharashtra and its impact on BJP’s performance were particularly perceptive. While he didn’t provide exact seat predictions, his regional analysis pointed to the struggles BJP faced, reflected in the election results.
A former Indian psephologist, Yogendra Yadav’s prediction that the NDA would not surpass the 272-seat threshold turned out to be off the mark. However, his detailed analysis of state-by-state losses and gains provided a comprehensive understanding of the electoral remarks. Despite his forecast of BJP securing 233 seats falling short, his emphasis on regional dynamics was noteworthy.
Adding to that, Sanjay Kumar of Lokniti-CSDS predicted that the BJP and its allies would win close to 300 seats, a figure that reverberated well with the final results. His pre-poll survey, which showed the NDA holding a comfortable lead over the opposition, was supported by the voting outcomes. Kumar’s prediction of a competitive election was validated, though the NDA surpassed his conservative estimates.
Senior journalist Rajdeep Sardesai highlighted the role of women and young voters in the election, predicting a BJP victory either through coalition or outright majority. His insights into voter demographics and the BJP’s dominance in direct contests against the India alliance were reflected in the election results, confirming his broader predictions.
Pradeep Gupta of AxisMyIndia refrained from predicting specific seat numbers but stressed the importance of key issues like unemployment and inflation. His caution in making predictions was justified, but his focus on the factors influencing voter behaviour provided valuable context for understanding the election results.
The consensus was that most predictions leaned towards the victory of the NDA, which did indeed occur. However, there was a wide range of predictions when it came to the actual number of seats won. Surprisingly, nobody predicted that the India alliance would surpass 210 seats or more as they managed to secure 234 seats in the Lok Sabha Election 2024.
(On a lighter note, Timeline’s Yasir Sabah, the social media in-charge, has predicted almost the exact numbers similar to the current tally in an internal competition)
