US Presidential Elections 2024: How Trump Win Will Impact US-Iran Ties?
The victory of US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has started political analysts and experts to deconstruct the global equations in the near future. Considering the Israel-Palestine issue, Israel-Lebanon, Israel-Iran issue, and Ukraine-Russia matter, the political pundits are giving different and varied explanations of global outcomes considering Trump’s tenure and present US interests.
While talking about the US-Iran relations, Trump made the remarks in Florida after casting his vote in the 2024 presidential election. “My terms are very easy,” Trump said, while speaking to reporters, adding that Iran “can’t have nuclear weapons.” “I’d like them to be a very successful country,” he added, but declined to detail specific plans for US-Iran relations should he return to office.
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Tensions heightened in 2018 after Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic relief. That led to the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran, straining the country’s economy and prompting Iran to step away from its nuclear restrictions.
Though Iran insists its nuclear program remains peaceful, enrichment levels have risen significantly, alarming both the United States and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA has called on Iran to allow more inspections and transparency, while Tehran seeks sanctions relief as a condition for further diplomatic engagement.
Towards the US and the West, Iran had adopted a policy of “neither war nor peace”, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying, “There will be no negotiations and no war … Negotiating with people who break their promises, who go back on their commitments, and who are not committed to anything – they are not committed to morality, to legality, to international conventions, and to anything – is ridiculous.”
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Trump’s return has drawn both anticipation and concern about US-Iran relations and foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East. Trump is entering the White House at a time when Iran is on the verge of changing its national security doctrine. Under the evolving national security doctrine is an alliance with the East. NATO’s military support for Israel will likely push Tehran to consider a military cooperation with Russia. China can also be a future partner as per the predictions.
Iran’s currency, the rial, fell to an all-time low due to Trump winning the US presidency for a second time. The exchange rate was 32,000 for one dollar in 2015 which further fell down to 5,84,000 for a dollar when Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in as president in May. Today, it was traded at 7,03,000 for one dollar.
