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Blog: BJP's 'Guilt Vote' Spin Of Bihar Results And The Reality

The 2024 Lok Sabha election left Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with a reduced tally of 240 seats, a significant dip from previous showings, despite securing a third consecutive term. Interestingly, soon after BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition posted a landslide victory in Bihar on Friday, a new narrative emerged from the BJP camp and its media allies, popularly called the "guilt vote" or "regret vote."

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Blog: BJP's 'Guilt Vote' Spin Of Bihar Results And The Reality

Blog: BJP's 'Guilt Vote' Spin Of Bihar Results And The Reality

The 2024 Lok Sabha election left Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with a reduced tally of 240 seats, a significant dip from previous showings, despite securing a third consecutive term. Interestingly, soon after BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition posted a landslide victory in Bihar on Friday, a new narrative emerged from the BJP camp and its media allies, popularly called the “guilt vote” or “regret vote.”

By guilt vote, what they suggested was that after seeing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visibly disappointed face at the 2024 results in a public meeting, many voters felt remorse for not giving the BJP a fuller mandate. This emotional pull allegedly led to subsequent victories for the BJP and its allies in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Bihar, ushering in a so-called electoral resurgence driven by a collective resolve to not repeat the earlier “mistake.”

The guilt vote narrative was prominently voiced by BJP supporters and some of the media persons who are normally called ‘Godi Media’. One BJP Mumbai spokesperson explained it as a wave of national support rekindled after Modi’s 2024 disappointment, translating into successive state-level wins. Similarly, TV personalities and BJP sympathisers touted the idea that Hindu voters felt a heavy sense of regret, motivating them to turn out more decisively in later elections to ensure Modi’s leadership remained unchallenged.

This storyline even found echoes among political commentators and journalists viewed sympathetic to the BJP, framing the post-2024 election period as an emotional correction by a grateful electorate who feared the consequences of denying Modi a stronger mandate.

However, this “guilt vote” explanation oversimplifies a complex political reality and overlooks deeper structural and strategic reasons behind both the 2024 Lok Sabha seat reduction and the subsequent electoral gains by the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Indeed, the reduced tally in 2024 had clear roots in voter discontent with heavy economic challenges like economic turmoil after the introduction of demonetisation and GST, rising unemployment, farmers protests along with a palpable weakening of Modi’s electoral appeal compared to earlier elections. The opposition’s consolidation, strategic alliances, and successful capitalisation on fears about potential constitutional changes under a strong BJP majority also significantly dented the party’s seats. Moreover, BJP setbacks in crucial states such as Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan reflected anti-incumbency and local political dynamics far beyond a simple emotional vote correction.

The massive victory in Bihar in 2025, cited by some BJP supporters as validation of the guilt vote theory, can be better explained by concrete political and social strategies, rather than something cooked in BJP’s spin factory to place Narendra Modi’s image top of everything. Key among these was the large mobilisation of women voters, who turned out in historic numbers influenced by welfare schemes (plus the Rs 10,000 announced for them right before the elections) and safety assurances associated with the NDA’s governance. The alliance also deftly executed a flawless seat-sharing formula among BJP, JD(U), and other allies, reducing internal competition and maximising vote consolidation. Importantly, the NDA broadened its caste coalition beyond the traditional upper caste vote, incorporating economically backward classes and more women voters, strengthening its social base.

Bihar’s election campaign also revived the potent narrative of law-and-order, leveraging fears of a return to ‘Jungle Raj’ associated with opposition parties. This scared many voters into choosing the NDA as a safer, more stable option. Nitish Kumar’s enduring political stature as a stable leader played a critical role in balancing caste dynamics and complementing BJP’s national presence, further consolidating votes. These tangible electoral tactics and voter calculations present a much more grounded explanation for the NDA’s success than the attribution to a vague emotional guilt vote. On the other hand, Congress and its allies are still accusing the Election Commission of being complicit in vote chori (a narrative built by Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi based on the malpractices in the Haryana and Maharashtra electoral rolls) and EVM manipulation and they are still adamant that the Bihar results are also bear the unfair advantages BJP enjoys in the electoral politics.

Apart from giving a spin to boost the image of Brand Modi, the ‘guilt vote’ narrative can also be explained that as the BJP’s effort to deflect attention from real issues and policy failures that led to the BJP’s relative decline in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Allegations of vote-buying, electoral malpractices, and strategic missteps also cloud the electoral processes, but these do not fundamentally validate the guilt vote narrative either. Instead, the spin serves a political purpose: to sustain morale among BJP supporters and project an image of unwavering popular support for Modi and BJP despite electoral challenges. Interestingly, the ‘source’ based input provided to media did not talk about the electoral setbacks BJP and Modi faced in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand elections which were held after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

BJP’s 2024 Lok Sabha seat reduction was primarily driven by substantive voter concerns about unemployment, local anti-incumbency, and opposition unity, not merely emotional regret. The post-election electoral successes of the BJP-led NDA in several states owe more to strategic electoral management, alliance coherence, and targeted voter mobilisations than to any collective guilt felt by the electorate. While the guilt vote narrative makes for a compelling story rooted in symbolism and sentiment, the reality remains rooted in the complexities of Indian electoral politics, voter behaviour, and the BJP’s evolving political strategy.

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Bihar election results guilt vote Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi modi regret vote narendra modi

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