Exit Polls: BJP May Take Rajasthan And Madhya Pradesh, Congress May Take Chhattisgarh And Telangana. Mizoram Is For MNF
The election battle of the five states came to an end today. The last state to go to polls was Telangana. Five states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram went to polls this month. The vote will be counted on December 3rd. The assembly election of these five states are considered to be a “semi-final” for the Lok Sabha election slated to happen in 2024.
Exit polls suggest that BJP may take Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, while Telangana and Chhattisgarh may welcome Congress. Mizoram is likely to be steadfast in its stand with the incumbent MNF. It is pertinent to note that exit polls may not be accurate in some cases. There have been past instances where exit poll predictions went wrong.
Rajasthan:
Rajasthan went to polls on December 25 polling for 199 seats out of 200 seats. Among these seats, 25 are reserved for Scheduled Tribe and 141 seats for General category. Since 1998, Congress and BJP had been switching powers in Rajasthan. This year too, both parties are confident in forming government in the state. Congress Ashok Gehlot is confident in their “seven guarantees”, while BJP is confident in the guarantee of Narendra Modi.
As per the predictions from exit polls, BJP will gain their glory back in Rajasthan. Total polls suggest that BJP will gain a total of 104 seats out of 199 seats and 85 seats may go to Congress.
Exit poll:
Times Now-ETG predicted BJP to bag a huge victory with 118 seats while Congress may win 64 seats. Matrize said BJP will win 115 seats and Congress may form government with 122 seats. ABP-CVoter and Dainik Bhasker root for BJP with 104 seats and Congress may win 102 seats.
Today’s Chanakya think Congress may emerge as a single largest party with 101 seats while BJP may win 89 seats. Axis My India believe Congress will win Rajasthan with 96 seats and BJP will follow close with 90 seats. Polstrat predicted BJP to form government I Rajasthan this year with 104 seats and Congress may win 85 seats.
Madhya Pradesh:
Madhya Pradesh went to polls to elect all the 230 members of the legislative on November 17th. After consecutively winning for three times – 2003, 2008 and 2013 – BJP lost incumbency to Congress in 2018. But the party came back to power when the Kamal Nath led Congress rule fell in March 2020. The 2018 election left a hung assembly in the state with Congress being the single largest party and BJP bagging popular votes.
In the end, Congress formed the government with Kamal Nath as Chief Minister of the state. But 2020 was a shocking year for Congress as 22 MLAs resigned from the assembly and approached BJP. The MLAs included Jyotiraditya Scindia, who has been serving for Congress from 2001.
The defect of MLAs resulted in the collapse of Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Kamal Nath, who was the Chief Minister was forced to resign. Following his resignation, BJP formed the government with Shivraj Singh Chouhan as Chief Minister. The Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party also went in full strength in the state.
Out of 230 seats in the sate assembly, 116 seats mark the majority of the party. The exit polls show BJP have an edge to the victory. Current CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan will get another chance to prolong his term as Chief Minister. He is the longest standing Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh.
Exit Polls:
According to Jan Ki Baat exit poll, Congress is likely to win 102-125 seats, BJP will win 100-123 seats and other parties may bag five seats. Matrize exit poll think BJP will come to power with 118-130 seats whereas Congress may gain 97-107 seats. Dainik Bhasker think Madhya Pradesh is for Congress as the party may win 105-120 seats while BJP may edge with 95-115 seats. Pollstrat said BJP may come to power with 106-116 seats and Congress will win 111-121 seats.
Today Chanakya firmly believes, BJP will gain back their forte with 151 seats while it predicted Congress to have 74 seats. Axis My India also believes this year is for BJP in Madhya Pradesh with 140-162 seats for BJP while Congress may only secure 68-90 seats.
Times Now- ETG said that BJP may win 105-117 seats while Congress may win 109-125 seats. C-Voter also gave BJP 88-112 seats and Congress may bag 113-137 seats.
Telangana:
Telangana was the last state to go for polls in the 2023 Assembly election. With 119 seats, the state is a neck-neck to battle ground for Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) which is a well-established party in Telangana locks horns with Indian National Congress (INC), which is trying to gain their pride back in the state and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is determine to lock the state under its clasp.
While the incumbent party leader C Chandrashekar Rao of BRS is gearing up for his historic win for the third consecutive time this year, all the three parties do not have it easy in Telangana.
Inspired by the victory in Karnataka, Congress is looking for an anti-incumbency wind to blow against BRS. The party’s election campaign also revolved around raising anti-incumbency sentiments against BRS. Several leaders from BRS also joined Congress in recent months, boosting the party’s confidence in Telangana. The party filled their campaign with pointing out BRS and KCR family corruptions.
BRS is holding on to Telangana with all the welfare initiatives and of course the KCR charisma. BJP pointed the “family rule” of KCR family and repeated the necessity of “double engine government”. The party invested their hope in Narendra Modi popularity. Though BJP only secured one seat in 2018, the party won four Lok Sabha seats in 2019.
The exit polls show that Telangana is for Congress with BRS tailing close. Telangana Jan Ki Baat predicted Congress to win 48-64 seats, BRS to win 40-55 seats. They predicted BJP may win 7-13 seats and AIMIM may win 4-7 seats. BRS is trying to retain power for third consecutive time. Congress is determined to throw the incumbent party and form the government. BJP too played well during the campaign with Narendra Modi going out there.
Exit Polls:
Times Now – ETG predicts Congress to win in Telangana with 60-70 seats, BRS may have a win at 37-45 seats, BJP only may have 6-8 seats and AIMIM may bag 5-7 seats. India TV-CNX too predicted the seat for Congress with the majority of 63-79 seats, BRS with 31-47 seats, while BJP only have 2-4 seats and AIMIM may bag 5-7 seats.
Matrize thinks Congress will form the government with the majority of 58-68 seats where as BRS may bag 46-56 seats. BJP may only have 4-9 seats and AIMIM may win 5-7 seats. Polstart predicted Congress and BRS on inch-to-inch competition. While Congress have the possibility to win 49-59 seats, BRS have the possibility to bag 48-58 seats. BJP is predicted to have 5-10 seats and AIMIM to win a total of 6-8 seats.
Chhattisgarh:
Chhattisgarh is having the most ferocious fight out of all the state. BJP and Congress are level pegging the seats this year. The state went to polls in two phases, on November 7 and November 17. Chhattisgarh is the only state among the four other states to portray a high-octane electoral contest.
The tribal dominated state has a 90 seats legislative assembly. Chhattisgarh is witnessing a direct battle between incumbent Congress and the BJP. Congress is hoping to cement their power for another term while BJP is hoping to gain back the state which was their forte for 15 years, from 2003 to 2018.
Exit polls predict a tight competition between the ruling party Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, with Congress having an edge to form the government.
Exit polls:
Polstrat predicted that Congress will win 40-50 seats, with BJP following right behind with 35-45 seats. India Today-Axis predicted Congress to bag 40-50 seats and BJP to bag 36-46 seats. Others may win 1-5 seats.
ABP News-Cvoter said Congress will win 41-53 seats and BJP will win 36-46 seats. Today’s Chanakya predicted Congress to bag 57 seats and BJP to may gain 33 seats. Times Now-ETG too predicted the grand old Congress to win 48-56 seats. BJP may win 32-40 seats while others may win 2-4 seats.
Mizoram:
Mizoram have total of 40 assembly seats. The ruling party, Mizo National Front, which was led by Zoramthanga, the current Chief Minister of Mizoram have tow serious and prolonged rivals to face. The BJP and Zoram People’s Movement, a six-party alliance.
Regional party plays prominent role in Mizoram politics. While in the 2018 assembly election, MNF formed the government with undefeatable victory, with 26 out 40 seats in its pockets. MNF is BJP’s NDA ally. BJP would like to change their façade in the state and by gaining more than one seat which the party have now. Congress hopes to gain back its past glory in the state, which came to a freezing point when the five-time Chief Minister of the state, Lal Thanhawla era was ended.
Exit polls shows victory for regional parties and the National parties like Congress and BJP is highly to be out of the door. Out of the 40 seats, 21 seats are needed to form a strong assembly.
Exit polls:
TV-CNX predicts MNF to win with 14-18 seats. Congress may have 8-10 seats. BJP may have the possibility of winning 0-2 seats. Jan Ki Baat believes MNF to gain 10-14 seats and 15-25 seats for ZPM. BJP is likely to 0-2 seats. Congress may win 5-9 seats.
ABP News-CVoter predicted 15-21 seats for MNF. ZPM may win 12-18 seats and Congress is likely to win 2-8 seats. It said BJP will not be able to their account in Mizoram. Times Now-ETG said that MNF will win 14-18 seats, ZPM will win 10-14 seats. Congress may win 9-13 seats and BJP will 0-2 seats.
