How Will The Hindi Heartland Vote: An Observation
As the election results are inching closer, Political scientist Suhas Palshikar in the article “What North Thinks Today,” analyses the current political scenario of the Hindi Heartland.
The Hindi belt constitutes an influential factor in the shaping of political power in India. It exhibited uniformity in approach to socio-cultural matters and in political behaviour.
From 1967 to 1989, there was uniformity in the pattern of the entire Hindi belt”s response to the election. They expressed disappointment with Congress; the agitation resulted in the realignment of the intermediate and backward castes against the dominion of the upper and forward castes. The mid-nineties reflected the BJP forming a fortress in the region—the more militant ideologies and the politics of Hindutva steadily finding hold in the region. “The rise of the BJP in the 1990s and its resurgence in the 2014 owe much to the party”s impressive performance here: The BJP won 178 seats in the Hindi belt in 2019,” writes Suhas Palshikar.
Even before the BJP-led Ram Janmabhoomi agitation, Hindutva politics found a presence in the Hindi belt. In spite of a weakened Hindutva party at the time, Hindu sensibility found growth easily in these regions, and post-1989, “it converted subterranean existence into the electoral strength of the BJP.” Thus, even after the long term connection between Hindutva and region-focused Hindu sensibilities, Palshikar cites the possible reasons that resulted in reducing the BJP”s electoral strength in this region at present?
Firstly, the Hindu vote base—the strength of the BJP—has reached a saturation point. The Hindu consolidation has possibly translated into a vote bank for the BJP already, and there is nothing more to add. Secondly, the party has grabbed nearly all the seats in most of these states. It falls short only in Uttar Pradesh, therefore, in order to advance the saffron party”s performance, it is crucial to win more seats in the UP. It won 62 seats in a total of 80 constituencies in 2019. Therefore, in order to advance the saffron party”s performance, it is crucial to win more seats in the UP.
Even though the Modi factor and Hindutva politics continue to wield influence, Palshikar observes that anti-incumbency and overstated promises are placing the BJP in a tough situation. Rather than symbolic indicators of success, like the construction of the Ram Temple and the systemic marginalisation of an imagined enemy, the ruling party failed to touch upon real issues, including unemployment and price rise. Analysing all these points, Palshikar asks, “Will the Hindi belt, continue to be enchanted by Hindutva despite economic issues and despite the Hindutva rhetoric reaching a crescendo?”
Many have remarked about “Hindutva fatigue” as well. It does not mean that these states will “suddenly” turn away from the BJP and Hindutva. But, if it begins, it won”t stop with one state, he remarks. And the central question, will North distance itself from the BJP? will receive an answer on June 4.
