Mumbai South: Fight Between Two Shiv Senas

From the iconic Gateway of India to the scenic Marine Drive, Mumbai South constituency possesses a collection of landmarks that define the essence of Mumbai. With its diverse demographics and recent political tensions, the Mumbai South seat has become a focal point in the 2024 electoral battle.

This seat was noticed during seat-sharing negotiations among political alliances. In the Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) alliance, Congress has competed for the seat, citing its traditional stronghold in the constituency. But Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) argued and secured the candidacy of sitting MP and former Union Minister Arwind Sawant. In 2019 and 2014, Arwind was elected from the seat with more than one lakh margin.

Similarly, in the Mahayuti alliance, the BJP has staked its claim for the seat, pointing to its good organisational setup in the seat and earlier performance of the party. The BJP has won the seat twice, in 1996 and 1999, when Jaywantiben Mehta was their candidate. But, after prolonged negotiation, Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) has won the claim and fielded Yamini Jadhav as its candidate. Since 2019, Yamini has served as the MLA for the Byculla Assembly Constituency.

This year, Arwind Sawant faces a tough challenge against NDA candidate Yamini Jhadhav. Sawant’s win in the last two elections was attributed to Gujarati and Marwari voters, numbering around 2,80,000 in the constituency. This time Sawant is focusing on the Muslim-Marathi vote bank, with a total of 9 lakh voters in the constituency. Sawant remains confident of the hat-trick win, emphasising his vocal representation in Parliament, where he has raised national issues and local concerns. While facing anti-incumbency, Sawant hopes for a benefit from the MVA alliance, attracting unexpected voters such as Muslim voters, particularly in the Mumbadevi assembly, where Congress’s Amin Patel serves as MLA.

Yamini Jhadhav holds a stronger connection with Marathi voters in areas such as Byculla, Sewri, and Worli. In her campaigns, Jadhav highlights the good governance of PM Modi and CM Eknath Shinde, focusing on main infrastructure projects like the Coastal Road. Jadhav hopes to secure votes with the support of BJP stronghold areas, Colaba and Malabar Hill, and anti-incumbency against the two-time MP.

While the dynamics of the contest primarily revolve around the NDA-India alliance, a third aspirant working out in the fray is Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate Shoaib Khateeb. Shoaib is a businessman and trustee of Juma Masjid in the city. The masjid chief aims to garner Muslim votes, which make up 25.06% of the total population. Pitched against two national alliances, Shoaib’s campaigns highlight educational and medical facilities in constituencies and the reservation of Muslims.

There are six Vidhan Sabha segments, which are Worli, Shivadi, Malabar Hill, Byculla, Mumbadevi, and Colaba. In assembly seats, both alliances hold three segments equally. Thus, the poll results will likely reflect the next assembly election, which is probably going to be held in October 2024. The votes to poll from Worli, a seat of Aaditya Thackeray, are significant for INDIA bloc. The young Shiv Sena (UBT) leader has won the seat with a 69.14% vote share in the 2019 assembly election.

In 2019, sitting MP Sawant won the seat by a margin of one lakh. This year”s poll results are significant for the NDA  because Sawant’s victory in 2019 was with the support of the BJP and Shiv Sena. So, the results will also reveal that the votes polled in 2019 were for the BJP or the candidacy of Arwind Sawant.

(This story is part of a Timeline. internship project.)