Battle For Bapatla: Will YSRCP Sustain Against A Resurgent TDP?

Bapatla Lok Sabha constituency, a Scheduled Castes (SC) reservation seat, and it comprises seven Legislative Assembly segments: Vemuru (SC), Repalle, Bapatla, Parchur, Addanki, Chirala, and Santhanuthalapdu (SC). Formed in 1977, Bapatla spread across two districts: Guntur and a part of Prakasam. As per the latest statistics, the constituency comprises 14,92,910 voters, and rural voters make up approximately 84% of the population.

Since 1977, Congress and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) have won seats six and five times, respectively. In the 2019 elections, YSR Congress Party candidate Nandigam Suresh won the seat with a margin of 16,065 votes, securing 47.24% of the vote share. The YSRCP candidate has defeated Malyadri Sriram of the TDP for a 1.27% difference in vote share. While Congress has declined its vote share to 1.04% along with a fall in seats from year to year, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has improved its performance. BSP candidate K Devanand has secured 3.36% of the vote share in 2019. BSP holds a certain vote bank, which is in the major fray from the 2009 general elections onwards. However, BSP state president B Paramjyothi’s claim is that the party is focusing on winning five parliamentary constituencies, and Bapatla was not in the list. Political circles are wondering who will be possible beneficiary of the absence of BSP in the constituency as the party had secured 42,580 votes in the 2019 election.

The YSR Congress party has fielded the incumbent MP Nadigam Suresh Babu, for a second consecutive win in the seat. Compared to other seats, according to reports, it will be difficult for YSRCP to win a second term in the constituency. In the 2019 Assembly elections, four of seven seats were won by the TDP, and the rest of the three were won by the YSRCP. Apart from that, the voting behaviour of general elections is different from that of assembly elections. In the 2019 general election, the parliamentary constituency was polled 47.7% and 46.5% for the YSRCP and TDP respectively. But in the 2019 assembly election, the TDP secured a 47.1% vote share, while the YSRCP  got 46.3% of the vote share. As per the data, TDP has a slightly higher vote share than YSRCP in the assembly elections.

The BJP-TDP-JSP alliance may secure a larger vote share in the election. As per the data, in the 2019 election, the TDP secured 45.97% and the BJP secured 0.82% of the vote share. It implies that there are chances that the tripartite alliance and the split of votes by the BSP will lead to a winning margin for the NDA alliance. The TDP has fielded T Krishna Prasad, a former Telangana-cadre IPS officer, as their candidate, and his candidacy has surprised many since he has only joined the BJP in 2022, just after retirement from the service. Besides, Congress candidate JD Salim is also in the fray.

(This story is part of a Timeline. internship project.)