Can Nitish Kumar Maintain His Grip on Bihar Amidst NDA Dominance and INDIA Alliance Gains? (image-Facebook/PMO India)
One of the most important states in the Hindi heartland, Bihar, is predicted to have chief minister Nitish Kumar leading the fray once again as per the exit poll. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 29–33 seats (out of the total 40) in Bihar. In a surprising twist, the exit poll also suggest that the INDIA alliance might secure victory over 7–10 seats, overturning expectations by making a comeback from its previous win where they only secured one seat.
The entire campaign of the BJP ally Janata Dal (United) focused on riding the ‘Modi wave’ and highlighting the “jungle raj” of 15 years under the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) from 1990 to 2005.
On the other hand, RJD youth leader Tejashwi Yadav had a more issue-centric campaign, where he consistently brought up rising unemployment and inflation and made consistent attempts to expand its social base by giving non-Yadav OBC communities the opportunity to represent them in the Lok Sabha elections. Based on the exit poll numbers, the efforts seem to have made some impact, but not quite enough to break the NDA’s influence over the state. Nevertheless, the gains of the RJD, as per several exit pollsters, is bound to affect the NDA and convey the sentiments of the voters.
According to political pundits, voters appear confused with Kumar changing his stances frequently, which has led to doubts about his credibility. However, at the same time, the ‘Modi wave’ ends up being the final consideration factor for several voters, along with the equations of caste put into the mix. Political experts suggest that there is a possibility of the JD(U)’s core votes being split, especially among the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC).
The NDA alliance consists of five parties, including the BJP (17 seats), JD(U) (16 seats), Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (5 seats), and one seat each for Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha and Jitan Ram Majhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha. The INDIA alliance has the RJD (23 seats), Congress (9 seats), CPI(M) (5 seats), and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (3 seats).
In the general elections of 2019, the NDA secured a near-clean sweep by winning 39 seats, with the Congress winning one seat. In 2014, the BJP-led NDA, which did not have Nitish Kumar as part of the alliance, won 31 seats.
