Decoding BJPs' Faizabad Loss: Suman Gupta Reveals Key Insights And Voter Sentiments

The aftermath of the recent Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh has left political analysts and leaders scrambling for explanations. Amidst this convulsion, Suman Gupta, editor of the Faizabad-based newspaper Jan Morcha, sheds light on the intricacies of the results and the underlying sentiments that insisted on voting against the BJP government.

She had sensed that BJP’s loss could cause the party to lose half of its seats in Uttar Pradesh. She is a resilient political reporter from a rural area who has been working in the Ayodhya-Faizabad region for three decades and a woman at that and has now shared her insights from a broad perspective.

In an exclusive interview with Rediff.com’s Syed Firdaus Ashraf, Gupta hunts through the questions that have been on everyone’s minds, providing insights into why the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced unexpected setbacks, particularly in the Ayodhya region.

When questioned about the BJP’s defeat in Faizabad, including Ayodhya, Gupta notes a distinct undercurrent that was largely overlooked by outsiders but acknowledged by insiders. She explained that while the BJP’s narrative revolved around the grand Ram temple and anticipated electoral gains, the ground reality presented a different picture. She said that outsiders never expected the BJP to be defeated in Ayodhya, but insiders always had a clear vision of how the election could change the expected BJP seats.

Gupta highlighted the emergence of a collective voice among Most Backward Castes and Dalits, echoing sentiments of discontent and disenchantment. She detailed the impact of developmental projects like Ayodhya’s beautification, which led to land acquisitions without adequate compensation, elevating resentment among locals.

As the interview progressed, the interviewer asked her, “Why hasn’t anyone spoken about this?” She explained that people were afraid of being noticed and that their homes might be demolished. This fear kept them from speaking publicly about this before or after the election.

Discussing the impact of VIP visits and increased tourism on Ayodhya residents, Gupta unfolds a stark reality of disruptions and inconveniences, contrary to the anticipated economic benefits. She distinguishes between devoted pilgrims and regular tourists, pointing to the struggles faced by ordinary devotees amidst rising real estate prices and dwindling access.

The conversation then delves into the BJP’s campaign strategies, with Gupta highlighting a pervasive fear that stifled dissent and led to a silent protest through the ballot. She stressed the role of caste dynamics, the public versus BJP narrative, and issues like inflation and unemployment that affected voters across demographics and their withdrawal from the Modi government in Ayodhya.

In analysing the candidate selection process and local statistics, Gupta refutes claims of missteps, attributing the BJP’s Faizabad loss to broader sentiments rather than individual candidature. She elaborates on the significance of non-controversial candidates and the role of undercurrents in defining the electoral upshot.

The top five takeaways from the insightful conversation:

1. Undercurrent of Dissent: Gupta highlighted that insider anticipated challenges for the BJP in Ayodhya due to an undercurrent of dissent in Awadh and Poorvanchal. This dissent was fuelled by various issues, including land acquisitions and caste dynamics.

2. Silent Strategy of voters: Gupta observed that Dalits and Most Backward castes had passed on secret messages in their families that no one must disclose the candidate’s name or whom they are going to vote in the election. This has set an unpredictable scenario and kept BJP candidates in discombobulation.

3. Shift in Electoral Narratives: The interview shed light on how issues like the Ram temple’s construction did not translate into electoral gains for the BJP, signalling a shift in electoral narratives towards substantive issues over rhetoric.

4. Impact of ‘400 Paar’ Slogan: Gupta noted that slogans like ‘400 Paar’ backfired as voters saw through polarising narratives, emphasising the electorate’s preference for dignity, equality, and concrete governance over exaggerated promises.

5. Mandal 3 Politics Emerges: The interview highlighted the emergence of Mandal 3 politics, where diverse demographics, including Dalits, OBCs, and youth, unified against the BJP, reflecting a broader trend in Uttar Pradesh’s political enigma.

The reference to “Mandal 3” in the interview indicates a perceived new phase of iteration of Mandal politics, that it was originated from the Mandal Commission, which was established in the 1970s to identify socially and educationally backward classes in India.

The interview concluded with reflections on constitutional fears, polarisation attempts, and the shifting political role play in Uttar Pradesh. Gupta offers a nuanced perspective on why polarising tales failed to sway voters and how the electorate’s collective consciousness navigated through complex socio-political mythos.

She halted it by saying that the bouquet of flowers got scattered, it worked two terms and will not prolong hereafter, BJP got beneficial voters on their side two times to win but this time all of them rejected the NDA government pondering on the issues they confronted in the recent years in Ayodhya.