Tharoor-Led House Panel Suggests Growing Pakistan, China Influence In Bangladesh

A parliamentary standing committee on external affairs has warned that India is facing its most significant strategic challenge since the 1971 war, due to the evolving political and security situation in Bangladesh, pointing to the resurgence of Islamist forces, weakening domestic political structures, and growing influence of China and Pakistan in Dhaka.

The committee tabled its 9th report titled ‘Future of India-Bangladesh Relationship’ in the Lok Sabha. The house panel is chaired by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor. As per the panel report, the situation does not pose an imminent danger to India’s security; however, it represents a deeper, long-term strategic implication for regional stability and India’s neighbourhood policy.

“India faces its greatest strategic challenge in Bangladesh since the Liberation War of 1971. While the challenge in 1971 was existential, a humanitarian and the birth of a new nation, the latter was of a graver, a generational discontinuity, a shift of political order, and a potential strategic realignment away from India”, the report mentioned.

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The committee considered multiple testimonies from government officials and non-government experts. The panel noted that the political transition in Bangladesh and shifting external alignments would shape India’s strategic and foreign policy environment over time.

According to the panel, a key source of uncertainty is the declining dominance of former PM Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League. While the party secured 224 seats out of 300 in the January 2024 elections, the panel flagged an estimated voter turnout of nearly 40 percent. This raises concerns over popular participation, political legitimacy, institutional control, and public confidence.

The committee also highlighted the rising sentiments of youth-led nationalist movements and a renewed presence of Islamist groups, which has potential to become a destabilising force in Bangladesh’s security.

The house panel also suggested the rising footprint of China and Pakistan in Bangladesh. This can dilute India’s traditional influence in Dhaka and complicate New Delhi’s strategic calculus in its neighbourhood.

The panel recommended that the government should continue to uphold its principled and humanitarian approach, consistent with India’s values and international responsibilities, while ensuring that such situations are managed with due sensitivity.