Risk Averse Vs Risk Ready: Understanding The Latest Conflict In West Asia (X image @Jewtastic)
Israel started its “limited ground invasion of southern Lebanon”. The occupation force said it is targeting Hezbollah positions. It said the operations are based on precise intelligence and are focused on specific targets in villages near the border. Israel has been bombing Lebanon for more than a week, mostly on civilian areas. Most of the killed are civilians than Hezbollah fighters, said media reports.
Journalist Stanly Johny points out on an X thread that when Hassan Nasrallah – the Hezbollah chief who has been assassinated in Israeli bombing campaign in Beirut last week– decided to attack northern Israel, he meant to keep some military pressure on Israel through limited war. And he must have thought to tone down the possibilities of war once there is ceasefire in Gaza.
Iran and its axis of resistance, which also include Lebanon’s Hezbollah, did not want an all-out war. for over one year, Hezbollah and Israel exchanged cross-border bombing, with over 80 percent of the bombing done by Israel, as per ACLED, known non-profit monitoring group, which is also funded by US State Department in the past.
Also Read: Israel Begins Ground Invasion Of Southern Lebanon
During the course, Israel must have sensed Hezbollah’s lack of enthusiasm in dragging out a full war. Though Iran has signaled that it could take risk for a war after the April attack in Damascus embassy, it went back after the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
It appeared that Iran wanted its axis to continue attack Israel seeking it to stop attacking Gaza. Hezbollah also wanted a ceasefire in Gaza, and continued to attack Israel, mostly as response to the increased attack from Tel Aviv.
But Israel, forever backed by US, was ready for a full-scale operation, knowing well that Washington, which has already deployed two carrier groups, will come for its defence.
Also Read: “Measure Of Justice” US Responds To Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah’s Assassination
The journalist pointed out that this reality, where one side is risk-averse and the other party is risk-ready worked in favour of Israel. Tel Aviv decided to go on full force against the axis of resistance, breaching all the red lines for Iran.
Israel is provoking Tehran to launch attack. If Iran does not respond, Israel will continue to degrade the axis. And if Iran respond, Israel will attain what it wanted and will launch a full-scale attack on Tehran.
Currently, Iran is under immense pressure. If it continues to exercise strategic patience, Israel will continue to pummel its axis of resistance, which in turn will weaken Tehran’s deterrence. If Iran hit back at Israel, the latter will go for a full blown war with Tehran. It appears that there is no way out for Iran from this mess.
