How Iran's Regional Proxies Are Responding Amid Ongoing Israel-Iran Conflict?
Since June 13, when Israel attacked against Iranian nuclear program and its military leadership, more than 200 people have been killed in Iran, and at least two dozen have died in Israel. Reportedly, Israel received intelligence that Iran’s alleged resumption of ‘weapons group’ activity was in pursuit of a nuclear weapon. However, the Israeli operation’s objectives are not well defined, as the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.
Arguably, Israel has a relatively limited ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities without active support from the United States. Though Israel can significantly delay Iran’s nuclear program by striking facilities, mainly Natanz, and assassinating nuclear scientists who are the key bottleneck in the program. Nonetheless, Iran’s nuclear program cannot be destroyed without striking the enrichment facility at Fordow, which likely requires US participation.
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As per the analysts, Israel recognised a golden opportunity to attack Iran, seizing its weakness following the collapse of its proxy ‘Axis of Resistance’ led by Hezbollah. At present, after the fall of its Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, the path to Iran was open, to the Israeli Air Force played a significant factor in launching the strikes by Israel on Iran’s nuclear sites.
Iran’s regional proxies have been significantly weakened. Hezbollah has been degraded to the point where there have been reports about its wariness of getting drawn into this conflict between Israel and Iran. The restraint seems as a direct consequence of its war with Israel, during which the group launched near-daily attacks into Israel from October 2023 until it agreed to a ceasefire in November 2024. The group suffered major military setbacks after the elimination of the entire senior command, including longtime leader Hassan Narallah.
Also, Syria’s principal strategic value lay in its role as a corridor, not a battlefield. As Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is gone, he took off Iran’s foothold in the country with him, for all intents and purposes. Under new president Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s leadership has completely severed ties with Iran and denied involving in the conflict. The Iranian embassy has been closed and Iranian flights banned from the Syrian airspace.
The Houthis retain the capability to strike Israel, but are not a strategic threat due to its distance from the country and its fairly modest arsenal. Since Friday, it has played a barely unnoticed role in the fighting.
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The Iraqi Shiite militias also have resources, but the Islamic Republic’s proxy and partner network agreed in December 2024 to halt attacks on US and Israel as part of an agreement with the Iraqi government. Reportedly, Iraqi PM Mohammed al-Sudani told militia leaders, that Iraq wants no part in the war.
Hamas has been decimated and fighting its own war in Gaza with no capability to be involved in the Israeli-Iran conflict.
