The White Helmets buried unidentified bodies from various locations across the city of Aleppo, as well as the countryside of Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama with these details.
The Syrian civil war, a devastating conflict that began in 2011, has reignited with a stunning rebel offensive threatening the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. This rapid advance, led by opposition forces, has captured major cities like Aleppo and Hama and now edges closer to Damascus, the capital. Former US President Donald Trump, in a recent statement, reiterated his stance that Syria is “not our fight,” emphasising non-involvement in the ongoing chaos. As global powers navigate the rapidly changing landscape, the conflict’s dynamics could significantly reshape the Middle East.
Trump acknowledged that “the Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad”. He observed that Russia, “because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers”, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years.
“This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED’,” Trump said in his statement.
The Syrian Civil War: A Brief Overview
Initially sparked by a peaceful pro-democracy uprising against Assad’s authoritarian rule, Syria’s civil war has drawn in regional and global powers. Over 500,000 people have died, and 12 million have been displaced. Though Assad regained control of much of Syria with support from Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, large swathes of the country remain beyond his reach, particularly in the north and east.
The latest rebel offensive is spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with roots in al-Qaeda. HTS has capitalised on waning support for Assad from his allies and launched a major push southward, taking advantage of a ceasefire breakdown and a distracted international community.
The Key Players and Their Interests
United States
Under President Joe Biden, the US appears cautious about engaging directly in the Syrian conflict. The rapid rebel advance has caught Washington off guard, mirroring past misjudgments in Afghanistan and Ukraine. While the US opposes Assad, its priority has been countering the Islamic State group (IS) and supporting Kurdish-led forces in the northeast. The Biden administration maintains that the US has no direct involvement in the current rebel offensive, despite accusations from Assad that the West is aiding his opposition.
Russia
Russia’s 2015 intervention was pivotal in propping up Assad, providing air support that helped his forces recapture key territory. However, Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine has diminished its ability to sustain its presence in Syria. The recent rebel gains highlight how stretched Moscow’s military resources have become. Losing Syria would be a severe blow to Russia’s influence in the Middle East, undermining its status as a global power and eroding its alliances.
Iran
Iran, a staunch ally of Assad, has used Syria as a strategic base to project power across the region. Its support has included deploying Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces and coordinating with Hezbollah. However, recent Israeli strikes and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces to confront Israel in Lebanon have weakened Iran’s position. Tehran now faces a dilemma: doubling down on its Syrian commitment risks overextension, while scaling back could jeopardise its “Axis of Resistance.”
Turkey
Turkey plays a dual role in the Syrian conflict. While supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of rebel factions, Ankara has also sought rapprochement with Assad to address its domestic concerns, particularly the Syrian refugee crisis. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan views the rebels’ offensive as an opportunity to pressure Assad into negotiations, but he is wary of HTS’s Islamist agenda. Turkey’s broader goal remains the creation of a buffer zone along its border to counter Kurdish groups it views as terrorist threats.
Arab States
Initially backing the opposition during the war’s early years, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have since shifted toward normalising ties with Assad. However, the rebels’ resurgence has put this policy to the test. Arab states now face a delicate balancing act: curbing Iranian influence in Syria while avoiding the rise of Islamist factions like HTS. The Gulf Cooperation Council has called for de-escalation and the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity.
Israel
Israel’s primary concern in Syria has been Iran’s entrenchment and its support for Hezbollah. Regular Israeli airstrikes have targeted Iranian assets and supply routes. The recent rebel offensive complicates Israel’s position, as HTS’s Islamist ideology poses a potential threat. Israel must now navigate between preventing Iran’s resurgence and avoiding a destabilising vacuum that could empower extremist factions.
What Sparked the Rebel Offensive?
The ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey in 2020 had largely contained hostilities in northwestern Syria. However, escalating violence in late 2023, including Russian airstrikes and Syrian government raids, shattered this fragile truce. HTS, bolstered by Turkish-backed factions, launched its offensive on 27 November, citing the need to “deter aggression.”
The offensive comes as Assad’s allies face multiple challenges. Russia’s focus on Ukraine, Hezbollah’s redeployment to Lebanon, and Iran’s strained resources have left Syrian forces vulnerable. This has emboldened rebels to capitalise on the regime’s weakened state.
The Humanitarian Toll
The resurgence of violence has exacerbated Syria’s already dire humanitarian crisis. Over four million people reside in the rebel-held northwest, many of them displaced multiple times. The UN and international organisations have called for urgent measures to protect civilians and ensure humanitarian access, warning of mass displacement if the fighting reaches Damascus.
What Lies Ahead?
The outcome of the Syrian civil war remains uncertain. The rebels’ rapid advance signals a significant shift, but their fragmented composition and Islamist ties raise questions about their ability to govern. Meanwhile, Assad’s regime, though weakened, retains pockets of support and could regroup if backed decisively by Russia or Iran.
For regional and global powers, the stakes are immense. The fall of Assad could disrupt the geopolitical status quo, with ripple effects across the Middle East. As the conflict intensifies, the international community must grapple with balancing immediate humanitarian needs against the long-term implications of a fractured Syria.
