Damascus Has Fallen: 10 Points
The Syrian Civil War has reached a historic turning point, as Islamist rebels seize control of Damascus, signalling the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Syria’s geopolitical importance is immense, acting as a crucial nexus in West Asia. As Iran’s sole state ally, it served as a key conduit to Hezbollah and hosted vital Russian military infrastructure, including the Tartus Naval Base, Russia’s only such facility beyond the former Soviet sphere. This base enabled Russia’s strategic projection from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
The Syrian Civil War, ignited in 2011, saw a multitude of actors vying for influence. Turkey supported the Free Syrian Army (FSA), while al-Qaeda established its own faction, the predecessor to the group now holding Damascus. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and the United States backed various militias, with the CIA running clandestine operations. Conversely, Russia’s intervention in 2015, alongside Iranian and Hezbollah support, became pivotal in Assad’s survival, shifting the tide of war.
Read also: “Damascus Has Been Liberated”; Syrians Gather At Lebanon Border To Return Home
The situation evolved with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, an al-Qaeda affiliate, solidifying control in Idlib under Turkish patronage. Amid a crumbling Syrian regime, Jolani’s offensive led to Damascus’ capture, ending decades of Baathist rule and secular governance. As Jolani’s Islamist state takes shape, implications for Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia’s strategic foothold in the region are profound. This seismic shift mirrors the long-term ripple effects of the Iraq War.
Here are ten key developments:
1. Damascus under Rebel Control
The Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), announced the capture of Damascus. This marks the end of Bashar al-Assad’s 54-year Baathist rule, with rebels declaring Syria “free of tyranny.”
2. Assad Reportedly Flees Syria
Reports indicate that Assad fled Syria amid the rapid rebel advance, which overran key cities like Aleppo and Hama. Former U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Russia’s withdrawal of support forced Assad to escape.
3. A “Historic” Moment for Syria
Mazloum Abdi, commander of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, hailed this as a transformative moment. He expressed hope for a democratic and just Syria, marking a shift in regional dynamics.
4. HTS Offensive Enabled by Turkey
HTS, a rebranded al-Qaeda affiliate, reportedly launched its offensive with indirect backing from Turkey. Turkish lira is the de facto currency in HTS-controlled Idlib, highlighting Ankara’s influence in the region.
5. Russia’s Influence Diminished
Russia’s military, overstretched due to the war in Ukraine, could not support Assad effectively. The rebel capture of Damascus is a significant setback for Russia’s West Asia ambitions.
Read also: Trump Says “Not Our Fight” on Syria: Who Are The Major Players In The Civil War?
6. Iran and Hezbollah Weakened
The collapse of the Assad regime disrupts the Iran-Hezbollah axis. Hezbollah has redeployed troops to Lebanon, while Iran faces increasing challenges in maintaining its regional influence.
7. Rebels Call for Free Elections
Interim Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali emphasised the need for elections, signalling a desire for a democratic transition. Rebel leaders pledged to protect state institutions during this critical phase.
8. Israel Monitors Closely
While asserting non-involvement, Israel has bolstered its defences along the Golan Heights. The rise of HTS, with its Islamist ideology, adds complexity to Israel’s security calculations.
9. Humanitarian Crisis Escalates
The UN warns of an impending humanitarian catastrophe. Damascus residents celebrated the regime’s fall but fear instability as millions remain displaced across the region.
10. Regional and Global Implications
The fall of Damascus echoes across West Asia, akin to the geopolitical shifts of the 2003 Iraq War. Experts predict prolonged instability and new alliances as powers recalibrate their strategies in Syria.
