Increasing Ties Between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea; What It Means For America And West
On March 26, the annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States by the US Intelligence Community was released by the office of Director of National Intelligence. Among the threats assessed in the report, an axis was highlighted. It detailed how the cooperation between four major adversaries of the United States, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, will be challenging the global interests of them.
Although there is no formal alliance among these countries, what many analysts have termed the “Axis of Upheaval” has gradually taken shape through years of varied cooperation. This alignment gained prominence after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
As Moscow faced sweeping Western sanctions, it increasingly leaned on China, Iran, and North Korea to meet its economic and military needs. These countries, already at odds with the West, shared overlapping interests with Russia. Iran and North Korea were already under Western sanctions. Tehran for its alleged nuclear program and alleged support for militias in Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen. Pyongyang for its weapons development. Despite these constraints, they continued to trade oil and missiles, with China playing a central role in supporting both economically.
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Now, with Russia experiencing the brunt of Western sanctions, these states have stepped in with mutual support, effectively dulling the impact of global restrictions. Their cooperation spans economic, military, and diplomatic fronts, deepening ties that could reshape global power dynamics.
The economic co-operations were at a big level, where China became Russia’s largest trading partner following a joint agreement between the two in 2022 for a no-limits partnership exceeding 240 billion dollars in 2023. Iran’s exports from Russia increased by 27% in 2022 and Russia de-froze North Korean assets defying UN sanctions.
The military co-operations were most notable as Iran supplied drones to Russia to be used in war against Ukraine while Iran was supported by Russia by receiving weapons, intelligence, and cyber capabilities. China avoided direct weapon trades but supplied dual-use materials worth $300 million, which can be used by both civilians and in the military if shipped components are put together or adapted for military use. For North Korea, apart from exporting ammunition, they even sent their troops to Russia to support Moscow in its war against Ukraine, among whom many were reportedly captured as well.
As per the report of the US Intelligence Community, the cooperation among these four countries are intensifying in recent years, reinforcing threats from each of them individually while also posing new challenges to US strength and power globally.
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According to Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former U.S. intelligence official and expert on authoritarian regimes, the growing influence of the Axis of Upheaval has weakened the effectiveness of Western sanctions and export controls. This has been particularly evident in the case of Russia, which has continued to access critical resources and economic support despite sweeping international measures. By working around restrictions through increased trade and shared resources, these countries have managed to reduce the intended pressure of economic penalties from US and West.
In addition, analysts suggest that this cooperation undermines established international norms and institutions, while also encouraging other states such as Syria, Venezuela, and Belarus, as well as non-state actors like Hezbollah (militant groups of Lebanon) and the Houthis (militant groups of Yemen)—groups that share alleged anti-Western positions and have received varying degrees of support from the said Axis members.
In short, the growing ties between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea show how these countries are working together more than ever before. Even without a formal alliance, their cooperation in trade, military support, and diplomacy is helping them stand stronger against the U.S. and the West. Reportedly, this makes it harder for Western countries to use tools like sanctions or international pressure effectively, and as their partnership grows, it influence global power dynamics and affect international stability in various ways.
(This story is part of a Timeline internship project)
