From Single Seat To Big Jump: How Congress's Target Goes In Karnataka (Photo X @siddaramaiah)

As Congress poised and determined to make a big jump from the single seat it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to a minimum of 20 in the 28 Lok Sabha constituencies in Karnataka, the party has carefully chosen its contestants to take on the incumbents, mostly the BJP MPs.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had swept the state, winning 25 out of the total 28 constituencies, and the Congress only one single seat. The other two were won by the JD(S) leaders. This time, with the Congress wresting power in the state last year, the party has more to bank on and seems to be bent on gaining an edge in the Lok Sabha elections.

Though the state’s Lok Sabha electoral history depicts a picture of saffron favour, there have been times the grand old party gained influence. Notably, the 2024 general elections are one of the defining elections for the Congress-led state government, which won the 2023 assembly elections.

A significant fall like what happened in 2019 would possibly result in adverse consequences for the incumbent government, which can even lead to the collapse of the government, according to analysts. The chief minister has hinted about the BJP-JD(S) attempt to bring down the government, adding that the party would become stronger in the general election.

To counter the threat, the grand old party has set a formidable target of winning at least 20 seats, fielding strong candidates, and pushing aggressive campaigning. Notably, with the Congress’s efforts to engage with the predominant community such as Lingayat after the saffron party sidelined some of its leaders, it seems that the party’s confidence has beefed up.

The victory margin in last year’s assembly election, in which the party won 66 of the total 94 assembly segments, exhibited the change in the electoral landscape. The party, hence, demonstrated confidence, noting the support of dominant communities.

The 14 seats that stood firm with the saffron party in the previous elections in North Karnataka regions have been unpredictable for the BJP this time. The political and social engineering carried out by chief minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Sivakumar is learnt to be alarming for the BJP.

Out of these 14, the saffron party particularly faces challenges in the Lingayat dominant eight constituencies including Shimoga, Belgaum, Dharwad, Gulbarga, and Uttara Kannada. Many of these constituencies have reportedly developed strong anti-incumbency feelings.

In addition, political analysts have observed a weak performance for senior BJP leaders such as Ramesh Jigajinagi, PC Gaddigoudar, Raja Amareshwara Naik, and Gayathri Siddeshwar. The sexual allegations associated with the party’s ally, JD(S), is also projected to be a dent against the potential saffron wave.

However, most of the exit polls have suggested an advantage for the saffron party,