Lucknow Constituency: Can SP Challenge The BJP Stalwart
Lucknow Lok Sabha Constituency, the capital city of Uttar Pradesh, holds a distinct political behaviour in the elections. Since 1957, this historic seat has elected Congress, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) multiple times. Janata Dal and Bharatiya Lok Dal were also elected once, in 1989 and 1977, respectively. Presently, incumbent Union Minister Rajnath Singh is representing Lucknow, a BJP stronghold.
Since 1991, the BJP had a strong vote base in the Lucknow seat. Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was elected from the seat in 1991, 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2004 consecutively. As the successor of AB Vajpayee, Rajnath Singh has won the elections from the seat in 2014 and 2019 and is now seeking a straight third term. Notably, since 1991, the BJP has never declined its margin less than one lakh, except in 2009, which was 40,901 votes. Rajnath Singh increased his vote percentage from 54.27% to 56.7% in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
As one of the most populous cities in UP, the vote shares of different communities have a highly significant impact on electoral politics. Minority votes, especially Muslims, play a significant role in the electoral arena of Lucknow by constituting a significant 21.46% of the total population. Since 1991, the BJP has had a strong hold on Muslim votes, especially Shia votes, which count 80,000. The emotional legacy, personal charisma, and inclusive political style of Vajpayee have highly influenced minority votes. The recent elections have indicated that prominent Shia leaders have aligned with the BJP, and this shift has contributed to victories for BJP candidates in the seat. To foster the connection, soon after filing the nominations, Rajnath Singh met Shia leaders and requested support for his candidature. The BJP believes that, since 1991, the slight increase in the party”s vote would not have been possible without the support of minorities. Backed by diverse support, the ruling party expects a win by large vote margin.
In 2024, apart from caste and religious lines, Rajnath Singh approaches voters for infrastructure development to win their favour. Singh aims for India’s excellence in knowledge, science, and infrastructure. Construction of half a dozen flyovers in the city, Brahmos missile manufacturing, Gomti Nagar railway station development, and redevelopment of Lucknow Airport are also touted as his achievements.
To challenge the dominance of the BJP, the Samajwadi Party, an ally of the INDIA bloc, has fielded Ravidas Mehrotra as the candidate. Mehrotra was a former MLA for Lucknow East and Central constituencies in the 1989, 2012, and 2022 elections, respectively. Mehrotra’s past victories indicate that he could pose a potential challenge to the BJP”s dominance in the constituency. Keeping local issues at bay, the SP and INDIA bloc emphasises its campaigns concentrated on issues raised by the INDIA bloc. In a joint press conference in Lucknow, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav accused the BJP of multiple factors. Kejriwal accused that, if the BJP comes to power, they will end the reservation and the constitution will be abolished.
Apart from the SP, the other prominent candidate in the fray is BSP candidate Mohammad Sarwar Malik. In 2022, Malik was contested from Lucknow North but has lost his security deposit. Political circles accuse that there will be a split in Muslim votes due to the BSP”s Muslim candidate. This year, BSP has significant backing from All India Majlise-e-Ithihadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). The other seven candidates are independents from regional parties.
(This story is part of a Timeline. internship project.)
