What Happened To The Muslim Votes In Delhi?
During the 2020 assembly election, 83% percent of Muslims had backed the AAP while only three percent had supported the BJP. Historically, the Muslim electorate has played a crucial role in shaping the outcome of Delhi’s assembly election. However, things have turned out differently for AAP this time. Though the party was able to strive in Muslim-dominated constituencies, the Muslim vote share to the party was not enough when considering the 70 constituencies as a whole.
There are 11 assembly seats in Delhi where Muslim voters play a decisive role. In all these constituencies, voter turnout exceeded 55 percent, with most of the seats witnessing over 60 percent polling. However, considering the Muslim-dominated constituencies, it is to be noted that though AAP was able to retain its dominance, the vote margin has reduced alarmingly compared to 2020. Data indicates that this decline was due to the gains by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
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Unlike before, the Muslim voters had shifted their support to All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and to a lesser extent, to the Congress. While considering the data of the vote share the AAP had secured in the 2025 and 2020 Delhi assembly elections, there has been a significant decline in the vote share. This can be attributed to two main factors: the performance of the AIMIM in two key seats and the overall improved performance of Congress in the constituencies.
AIMIM had fielded candidates in two constituencies during elections in Okhla and Mustafabad. In Okhla, the AIMIM candidate secured 27.1% of the vote, coming second to AAP’s Amanatullah Khan, who led with 48.7%. In Mustafabad, the AIMIM candidate garnered 16.6% of the vote, finishing third behind the BJP.
Another factor that may have led to the decline in vote share is the desertation of the Muslims by the AAP during the 2020 riots and the party’s dubious role in blaming the Tabilghi Jamaat for the COVID-19 spread. And when AIMIM’s Owaisi fielded the jailed members of the community booked in the 2020 riots or involved in the CAA-NRC protest as their candidates, the vote shift was certain.
Another factor that may Another factor that may have added to the vote decline, is the role of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi poll campaigns in the region. It is to be highlighted that most of their roadshows and public meetings have been in areas where Muslims have a substantial vote.
Read also: BJP’s Abhay Verma Wins Laxmi Nagar Seat, Defeats BB Tyagi Of AAP
Along with Dalits and Jhuggi-jhopdi (JJ) or slum cluster residents, the Muslim community, which accounts for about 13% of Delhi’s 1.55 crore voters has played a key role in ensuring the AAP’s sweep in the 2015 and 2020 Assembly polls. Thus, the decline in Muslim vote share can be regarded as one of the major factors for AAP losing the national capital.
