The BJP’s numbers in the Rajya Sabha dropped by four on Saturday as nominated members Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani completed their terms. Originally appointed as non-aligned members by President Droupadi Murmu on the ruling party’s recommendation, they subsequently allied with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.

With their retirement, the BJP’s tally in the Rajya Sabha now stands at 86, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the party, holds 101 seats. This falls short of the current majority mark of 113 in the 245-member House, with the Rajya Sabha currently operating at a strength of 225.

The Congress-led INDIA bloc has 87 seats, including 26 from the Congress, 13 from Trinamool Congress (TMC), and 10 each from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the DMK.

Other parties not aligned with either the BJP or Congress, such as ex-Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s BRS has four, and nominated MPs, and independents, hold the remaining seats.

The reduced numbers increase the BJP’s reliance on non-NDA parties, including former allies like Tamil Nadu’s AIADMK and Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) from Andhra Pradesh to pass bills in the Rajya Sabha. Currently, with assured support from 15 NDA MPs, the BJP still needs at least 13 additional votes to pass bills.

Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, with 11 seats, has previously offered issue-based support to the BJP. However, Odisha’s BJD, which once provided similar support, has withdrawn after its electoral defeat to the BJP in recent elections. The BJD currently holds nine seats in the Rajya Sabha.

If the AIADMK, which has four MPs, and the BJD, with nine Rajya Sabha MPs, refuse to offer support, the BJP will turn to nominated members in the Rajya Sabha for votes. Currently, there are 12 nominated members, typically aligned with the ruling party since they are appointed by the government.

Apart from nominated members, non-aligned parties like the BRS, which holds four seats, and independents could also play crucial roles.

Currently, the Rajya Sabha has 20 vacant seats, including 11 held by elected members for which elections will be held this year. Maharashtra, Assam, and Bihar each have two vacant seats, while Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Tripura each have one vacant seat.

The BJP-led alliance is positioned to win seven seats from Assam, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Tripura. If it maintains its coalition in Maharashtra, it could potentially secure two more seats from there.

This potential gain of 9 seats, combined with votes from nominated members and support from YSRCP’s 11 seats would help it cross the majority mark.

There are four vacant seats from Jammu and Kashmir, which should see assembly elections by September 30 as per a Supreme Court directive.

The Congress is expected to win the vacant seat from Telangana, where it recently gained power. This seat is crucial as it would enable the party to claim the Leader of the Opposition position in the Rajya Sabha, thereby holding the LoP seat in both Houses of Parliament.