Southwest Monsoon To Hit Kerala Around May 31: Weather Office

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on May 15 that the southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala around May 31. This marks the start of the rainy season and provides relief from the hot and dry weather. The monsoon”s arrival over Kerala is a significant indicator of the seasonal transition across India.

Typically, the monsoon hits Kerala on June 1, but the date can vary by about seven days. The IMD has been forecasting the monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005 using a sophisticated statistical model. This model takes into account various factors such as temperatures in northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall in the south, and wind patterns over the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The model has a margin of error of ±4 days.

The IMD’s predictions have been accurate most years, with only 2015 being an exception.

Here is a summary of recent forecasts of southwest monsoon hitting Kerala and actual onset dates:

• 2019: Forecast – June 6, Actual – June 8
• 2020: Forecast – June 5, Actual – June 1
• 2021: Forecast – May 31, Actual – June 3
• 2022: Forecast – May 27, Actual – May 29
• 2023: Forecast – June 4, Actual – June 8

For 2024, the monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala on May 31, with a possible variation of four days. This forecast brings hope for the end of the summer heat and the beginning of the rainy season in India.