The Lancet Study Says Death Toll In Gaza Is "Up To 186,000 Or Even More"

Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza”.

gaza Edited by Updated: Jul 08, 2024, 1:58 pm
The Lancet Study Says Death Toll In Gaza Is

The Lancet Studies Says Death Toll In Gaza Is "Up To 186,000 Or Even More" (image@UNRWA)

Three researchers, published by the respected medical journal The Lancet said it is “not implausible” to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more in the Israeli genocidal war in Gaza. The paper which us titled as “Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential”. The research, which was published on July 5th, stated that by using the 2022 Gaza Strip population, which was 2,375,259, the death toll could be translated to 7.9 percent of the total population in the Strip.

The researchers, including Martin McKee, who is a member of the editorial board of the Israel Journal of Health Policy Research, came up with the estimate by extrapolating the death toll of 37,396 given by the Gaza Health Ministry on June 19. The researchers also include Rasha Khatib, and Salim Yusuf.

Notably, the official Health Ministry report doesn’t include over 10,000 people missing or buried under the rubbles.

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In the letter published by The Lancet, it is said that “the armed conflicts have indirect death implications beyond the direct harm from violence”.

The research said that the total death toll is expected to be large given the intensity of the conflict, destroyed health-care infrastructure, severe shortage of food, water and shelter, and the people’s inability to flee to safe places, and the loss of funding to the UNRWA, one of the very few humanitarian agencies in the besieged coastal enclave of Gaza.

Lancet said the Gaza Health Ministry has had to augment its usual reporting based on people dying in its hospitals or brought in dead, with information from reliable media sources and first responders. It said this change has inevitably degraded the detailed data recorded previously. Consequently, the Gaza Health Ministry now reports separately the number of unidentified bodies among the total death toll. As of May 10, 2024, 30% of the 35,091 deaths were unidentified.

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As per the research, “indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37 396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186 000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza”.

It said even if the conflict ends immediately, the indirect death toll will continue to mount in eh coming months and years from issues ranging from reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases.

As per a report published on February 2, this year, when the official death toll in Gaza is estimated to be 28,000, without a ceasefire, the death toll would be between 58,260 and 85,750 by August 6, 2024.