What's Awaiting Lebanon's New Government ? (image @nawafasalam)

Beirut, Lebanon: The Nawaf Salam government potentially promises a new chapter in Lebanon. The newly formed government convened its first cabinet session this week, where it began drafting its official ministerial statement and launching its mandate to govern. Shaping from a turbulent backdrop of political, military, and international push and pull, Salam is all up for the tasks ahead.

The shift started with the election of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun as the President of the country. The position has been vacant since 2022. Then Salam, the President of International Court of Justice (ICJ), was declared as the Prime Minister. Salam could serve the position at the very least until Lebanon’s next parliamentary elections in 2026.

The first test for the government came when Israel refused to withdraw from southern Lebanon on the 18 February deadline mandated by a US-brokered ceasefire agreement. Recently, Israel demanded a 10-day extension after the initial 60-day ceasefire deal term expired on January 26th. It was the second time Israel is asking for 10-day extension.

Israel demands to retain troop presence for the foreseeable future in five strategic Lebanese sites near the border areas.

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Since the 1989 Taif Agreement (the agreement that was signed in Saudi Arabia’s Taif, and the one which ended 15-years of civil war in Lebanon), the country’s ministerial statement might omit key language about its ‘resistance’. The move indicates huge shift inside, as for more than three decades, the phrase “the people, the army, the resistance” has been the political cornerstone. The language underscore’s Beirut’s internal direction, rather than specifically legitimizing armed resistance against foreign occupation.

All the government after the Taif Agreement, consistently endorsed the Lebanese people’s right to defend and resist against Israeli occupation, enshrining the ‘Army, People, Resistance’ triad. It has been the case even with Syria’s military presence in the country until 2005, and thereafter.

Overthrowing of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime, and Israel’s recent war on the country appears to distort the long-standing political equation. Reportedly, Washington, in particular, has played an outsized role in establishing a US-friendly government in Lebanon, exploiting Israeli efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s military arsenal under the pretext of curbing Iranian influence in Lebanon.

Though the Aoun-Salam administration have no intention of rapprochement with Tel Aviv, the president’s inaugural address and Salam’s early remarks advocate for a more diplomatic stance with the occupation state.

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It appears that both Auon, and Salam are aiming to appeal to the international backing to strike a deal that would see the withdrawing of Israel from Lebanon, bring all internal weapons under state control, and bolster army deployment in the south – in exchange for international financial assistance.

It appears that Iran’s axis of resistance, Hezbollah, might face strong opposition from the current government. The rise of right-wing, Christian Lebanese Forces (LF) and Kataeb parties, both anti-Hezbollah and pro-Israel proponents, to key ministries like Foreign Affairs and Justice, while excluding traditional Christian political allies of Hezbollah such as the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Marada parties, drops some hints at the shape of the newly formed government’s current trajectory and shift in political power balances.

Lebanon’s denial of Iran’s flight landing at Rafiq Hariri International Airport at Beirut on Thursday also garnered significant attention to the changing political atmosphere in Lebanon.

The new government have a filled plate on the table. The approaching municipal elections loom as a litmus test for public sentiment ahead of the 2026 parliamentary polls. There are also the urgent need to fill up key appointments in security, judiciary, and top administrative roles. According to The Cradle, there are over 450 vacancies in Lebanon’s public administration, including about 190 top-tier positions left unfilled since 2019 due to political instability.

As per the report, political forces in the country are aggressively maneuvering to influence appointments, including traditionally Shia-designated positions like the head of Lebanon’s General Security.

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And the major task the new government face is enforcing the ceasefire, ensuring Israel’s complete withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, and reconstructing the south, Bekaa, and Beirut’s southern suburb (Dahiyeh), while at the same time, addressing the Lebanese army’s resource crunch amid its unplanned deployments along the country’s southern and Syrian borders.

The continued Israeli occupation is believed to be a threat. Bombing and destruction of southern Lebanese villages, the killing of Lebanese civilians and soldiers, and the daily violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty loudly questions the government’s ability. Israel’s presence in the Lebanon soil can singlehandedly sink the Aoun-Salam government – not only from the protracted humiliation of a foreign occupation, but because tens of thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians cannot return home.