The ‘purvanchal’ or eastern region of Uttar Pradesh by and large exhibits uniformity in voting, which makes the poll outcome crucial for the parties. There is also a saying that the road to power in Delhi goes through Eastern Uttar Pradesh. The far eastern belt witnessed high-octane election campaigns as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term from Varanasi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s home turf, Gorakhpur, are also in the region.
Among the 27 seats in Purvanchal, 14 went polls in the sixth phase, and the remaining 13 constituencies are seeking electoral fate in the seventh and final phase (June 1). These include Varanasi, Gorakhpur, Maharajganj, Kushinagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Ghosi, Salempur, Ballia, Ghazipur, Chandauli, Mirzapur, and Robertsganj.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP-led NDA won 11 out of the 13 seats in the Eastern region, with the saffron party bagging nine seats and its ally Apna Dal (S) gaining two seats. Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which contested the election in alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), won two seats—Ghosi and Ghazipur. Though Congress has nothing much to add to its credit in the previous polls, this time Congress hopes to revive its fortunes in Purvanchal and repeat its 2009 performance, where the grand old party won many seats.
This time, in the SP-Congress alliance, the former has fielded nine and the latter has fielded three candidates in the Eastern region. The SP is banking on their formula, the PDA (backward, Dalit, Muslim), to regain a foothold in Purvanchal. In order to gain the support of non-Yadav OBCs, the SP has fielded candidates representing the Nishad, Rajbhar, Bind, and Sainthwar communities. Political analysts observe that “inclusive ticket distribution” will prove advantageous to the SP and able to drop its image of just a Muslim and Yadav party. SP and Congress hope that with the alliance, they will be able to shake Modi and Yogi’s bastions.
Caste Equations And Alliance Partners
The complex caste dynamics make the eastern region a pivotal battleground in the Lok Sabha polls, wherein INDIA and NDA left no stone unturned to woo their voters. The fate of alliance partners, mostly the BJP, will also be heavily weighed in this election. In Purvanchal, the BJP is highly dependent upon its alliances: the Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal (Sonelal) or AD(S); the Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP); and the Sanjay Nishad-led Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal (NISHAD) party. These leaders and their association with specific subcastes (jati) in the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) group bring a significant vote bank to the NDA.
Since the stakes are high, will the three caste party leaders be able to maintain the vote bank from their caste cohorts—Kurmis, Rajbhars, and Nishads, this time?
Mirzapur
AD(S) supremo Anupriya Patel is seeking his third consecutive tenure in Mirzapur. Here, the SP has fielded Ramesh Bind, the incumbent BJP MP from Bhadohi, who switched to the SP as he was denied a ticket. By contesting Ramesh Bind, SP stresses its PDA outreach, a tactful attempt to reach the Bind/Nishad boatman community. On the other hand, the ruling alliance relies on the elite-upper caste vote bank and Anupriya’s Kurmi groups—the dominant and affluent OBCs in the region. Meanwhile, analysts observe that 49 percent of OBC vote share constituting the poorer fronts, and the 25 percent Dalit-Adivasis also plays a significant role in the political destiny of Mirzapur.
Ghosi
SBSP chief Om Prakash Rajbhar has to face a twin challenge in Ghosi: bring all Rajbhar votes, a prominent caste group in the region, to the NDA fold and ensure a win for his son Arvind Rajbhar, who is contesting from the seat. However, Arvind seems to be caught in a tricky, triangular contest with the SP’s Rajeev Kumar Rai and the BSP’s Balkrishna Chauhan.
In the 2019 polls, the BSP won the seat with Atul Rai, and the party hopes to retain the seat this time as well. MP Balkrishna Chauhan is a two-time former MP, and there are reports that he is likely to spoilsport for both the SBSP and the SP, the Hindustan Times reports.
In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls, the SBSP leader was an ally of the SP. In the polls, the BJP failed to get hold of a single Assembly seat coming under Ghosi. Among the five segments, three had been won by the SP, and the BSP and SBSP had received one each. So, realising the importance of the SBSP, the BJP brought back Om Prakash Rajbhar, though they broke ties four years before. Rajbhar now holds a cabinet ministerial post in the Yogi Adityanath government.
The Rajbhars comprise roughly 2% to 3% of the UP population, but since they are concentrated in eastern Uttar Pradesh, they could affect nearly 20 Lok Sabha seats.
Gorakhpur
Gorakhpur, the bastion of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, will witness a ‘celeb’ battle: BJP MP, Bhojpuri actor Ravi Kishan, is up against Congress candidate, Bhojpuri film and TV actress Kajal Nishad. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Ravi Kishan defeated the Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate by a whopping margin of 3,01,664 votes.
Gorakhpur’s fate lies in the Brahmin versus Rajput vote bank. Yogi Adityanath’s Rajput identity has favoured the BJP in elections in the past. Meanwhile, Ravi Kishan, a Brahmin, seems to have a hold on the Brahmin vote banks.
Ghazipur
In Ghazipur, muscle power is playing a part in the election. Afzal Ansari, the elder brother of Mukhtar Ansari, a mafia don-turned-politician who recently died in prison tracing unusual circumstances, is fielding as a SP candidate. He is facing a tough challenge from the BJP’s Parasnath Rai. Five-time MLA and two-time MP Afzal Ansari is a BSP turncoat. In 2019, he won the election on a BSP ticket by defeating then Union Minister and current Jammu and Kashmir lieutenant governor Manoj Sinha by a large margin of 1.19 lakh votes. Prashant Rai, the BJP candidate, is a close aide to Manoj Sinha. Reports indicate that the Mukhtar Ansari factor and sympathy card are likely to work in favour of Afzal Ansari.
Varanasi
Varanasi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency, is witnessing a high-pitched battle. As Modi seeks his third consecutive firm, the INDIA bloc has placed UP Congress President Ajai Rai as his opponent. In the 2014 elections, Modi won the seat by acquiring a margin of over 3,72,0000 votes, defeating AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, his then opponent. In the 2019 elections, he raised his victory margin by 479505 votes by defeating Shalini Yadav of the SP (now BJP). For Rai, if he were able to narrow the margin of defeat, it would be a plus. Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi, actively spearheading the campaign in Uttar Pradesh, conducted a joint road show in Varansi with SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s wife and MP Dimple Yadav, seeking votes for Ajai Rai.
