Former Psephologist Yogendra Yadav Predicts 2024 Lok Sabha Elections: NDA Wouldn't Cross 268, 233 For BJP
According to former Indian psephologist and politician Yogendra Yadav, Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance would not cross 272 seats, the magic number to remain in power, in the elections being held for the 18th Lok Sabha. After calling his prediction “not an exit poll”, the academic, and political commentator, who is renowned for his insightful analysis of electoral trends and political dynamics in India, said BJP will get a maximum of 233 seats and NDA, the alliance led by BJP, will bag 268 seats. Yadav, a former AAP leader and currently the leader of Swaraj Abhiyan, was part of the Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.
After saying that he has travelled to different parts of the country in recent days, Yadav, in a video posted on his social media accounts, said the election trends is showing a turn now.
He then goes on to detail why he says so. “BJP has 303 seats and NDA alliance has a total 353 seats in the current Lok Sabha. In Karnataka, NDA is going to lose 10 seats. In Maharashtra, they are going to be defeated in a minimum of 20 seats. Gujarat and Rajasthan put together, there will be a decrease of 10 seats for NDA. Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh put together, they will lose 10 seats. From Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand also they are going to lose 10 seats. And a decrease of 15 seats from Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand put together, and 15 minus from Bihar as well,” he said.
इस वीडियो के माध्यम से मैं आज आपको वो सच बताने जा रहा हूँ जो आपसे दबाया और छुपाया जा रहा है।
सच ये है कि इस लोकसभा चुनाव ने करवट ले ली है।
वीडियो पूरा देखिएगा और शेयर ज़रूर करिएगा!#LokSabhaElctions2024 pic.twitter.com/VnrapvX8g7
— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) May 13, 2024
“Again, from West Bengal, North-East and other Union Territories, NDA will record a decrease of 10 seats, and this comes to a total loss of 100 seats for NDA from their current tally,” he added.
About the gains for the NDA alliance, he says that there will be an increase of five seats from Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana. “With TDP in Andhra, there will be a gain of 10 seats for NDA. This means, BJP will lose 65 seats and allies 15,” he concluded saying how he reached the numbers 233 seats for BJP and 268 seats for NDA.
Since published the video on Monday, it has attracted massive interest on social media.
Born on September 5, 1963, Yadav”s journey into the realm of psephology began with his academic pursuits, where he delved into the intricacies of political science and sociology.
Yadav”s scholarly background, coupled with his keen interest in Indian politics, propelled him into the field of psephology – the study of elections and voting behavior. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in New Delhi, where he later served as a faculty member, imparting knowledge and mentoring aspiring scholars.
Yadav”s foray into psephology coincided with the emergence of coalition politics and electoral volatility in India during the 1990s. His analytical prowess and deep understanding of socio-political dynamics quickly earned him recognition as a leading expert in the field. He co-founded the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), a premier research institute focusing on Indian politics and society, where he served as a senior fellow and contributed significantly to shaping the discourse on electoral studies.
Yadav”s expertise in psephology became particularly evident through his involvement in conducting exit polls and analyzing election results across various states and general elections in India. His nuanced interpretations and accurate predictions garnered widespread attention and established him as a trusted authority on Indian elections.
Yadav had played a pivotal role in shaping the Aam Aadmi Party”s (AAP) early strategies and ideological framework, advocating for transparency, grassroots democracy, and anti-corruption measures. However, he later parted ways with the AAP due to ideological differences.
