Political tensions are surging in Maharashtra as both the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (comprising Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, Congress, and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP) and the BJP-led Mahayuti grapple with seat-sharing challenges for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
Uddhav Thackeray recently announced Amol Kirtikar”s candidacy for the Mumbai North West constituency. Amol Kirtikar, son of the incumbent MP Gajanan Kirtikar, aligned with the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde after the party”s split, earned Thackeray”s favour for his loyalty during the upheaval.
As the Congress expressed vehement discontent over the decision, it once again laid bare the vulnerabilities within the MVA coalition. Despite ongoing deliberations within the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) to finalise seat allocations for the upcoming elections, Thackeray”s unilateral declaration has stoked the ire of former Mumbai Congress chief and ex-Congress MP Sanjay Nirupam.
Nirupam, who is said to have been keen to contest from the same seat, said that the UBT declaring its candidate was meant to humiliate the Congress. He also questioned Thackeray’s choice of Kirtikar who is facing an inquiry in the ‘Khichadi’ scam during the Covid-19 pandemic.
“I have come to know from our leaders present during the seat sharing talks that there are still 8 to 9 seats that are pending and one of them is the North West seat, so how did the Sena declare a candidate?” asked Nirupam.
Not long ago, Aaditya Thackeray, in a rally at Mumbai”s Girgaon area, declared Arvind Sawant as the candidate for the Mumbai South Lok Sabha constituency, prompting the departure of former MP Milind Deora from the Congress, who subsequently joined the Shinde Shiv Sena and became a Rajya Sabha MP.
The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, wielding significant Dalit support in Maharashtra, remains hesitant to commit to joining the Maha Vikas Aghadi until it sees more cohesion within the coalition. Speaking to NDTV, VBA chief Prakash Ambedkar disclosed that the alliance remains undecided on several critical seats, refraining from revealing their strategy until the MVA addresses these concerns.
Ambedkar criticised the lack of transparency, alleging hidden agendas and uncertainty about the coalition”s longevity. The unresolved allocation of 15 seats looms large as a contentious issue, according to him.
Despite the MVA”s eagerness to include the VBA, led by Ambedkar, grandson of Dr. BR Ambedkar, the architect of India”s Constitution, discord persists. Ambedkar highlighted discrepancies in seat allocation, with the VBA requesting five seats but facing pushback from the MVA, which appears willing to concede only two or possibly three, according to media reports.
Beyond mere numbers, Ambedkar emphasized the need for a fair distribution of winnable seats, expressing doubts about the alliance where equitable distribution is lacking. He advocated for a realignment of alliances in light of recent splits and defections within Maharashtra”s political landscape.
The inclusion of the VBA in the alliance is expected to bolster the MVA”s influence, particularly given the VBA”s emergence as a significant political force post-2019 Bhima-Koregaon clashes, marked by its anti-BJP stance.
Similar issues are emerging within the BJP-led alliance in Maharashtra, with the BJP asserting claims over seats currently held by Shiv Sena MPs supporting Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Under mounting pressure, Shinde faces resistance against ceding these seats to the BJP, particularly from MPs representing constituencies such as Ramtek, Yavatmal-Washim, and Kolhapur, who are lobbying to retain their hold over these constituencies. Interestingly, it”s not solely the BJP but also the Ajit Pawar-led NCP vying for seats under the Shinde faction.
Ajit Pawar has voiced aspirations for Maval and Parbhani constituencies, both currently with Shinde-led Sena MPs.
The Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar, is anticipated to see the BJP contesting 28-30 Lok Sabha seats, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena 10-12 seats, and Ajit Pawar”s NCP faction 6-8 seats. Although the BJP”s allies convened with senior BJP leadership in Delhi on Monday, a definitive seat-sharing arrangement remains elusive.
During a meeting in Delhi on Friday, the Mahayuti alliance conducted a thorough analysis of seats in preparation for a forthcoming Lok Sabha poll agreement. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in attendance, emphasised the importance of winnability as the primary criterion. He stressed the necessity for reciprocal vote transfer among the ruling coalition partners, necessitating an equitable distribution of seats.
Shinde contends that Shiv Sena candidates hold a stronger position against UBT candidates in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), highlighting potential complications in vote transfers if seats were to be allocated differently.
Earlier this week, reports indicated mounting pressure on the BJP within the Mahayuti alliance, with Ajit Pawar”s NCP faction and the Shiv Sena advocating for a larger allocation of Lok Sabha seats. Presently, the Ajit Pawar camp holds only one Lok Sabha seat, Raigad, represented by the party”s state president, Sunil Tatkare.
Sources reveal a firm resolve within the Ajit Pawar camp to contest a minimum of 10 out of Maharashtra”s 48 Lok Sabha seats, while Shinde Sena, represented by Shamburaj Desai, a state minister, asserts its intention to fight 22 constituencies.
Leaders from the BJP in Vidarbha argue for a significant share of seats, citing their readiness to forego the Chief Minister”s chair in the upcoming assembly polls later this year.
Expressing concern, a BJP leader remarked, “Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are engaged in intense negotiations, but their focus appears short-sighted. Shinde might aspire for the CM position again, thus, he must be willing to compromise on seat allocation.”
Reflecting on the 2019 elections, where the unified Shiv Sena clinched 18 Lok Sabha seats, including three from Vidarbha, the BJP emphasises that this victory was propelled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi”s popularity and a cohesive Sena. However, with the recent split, doubts linger over the Shinde faction”s ability to retain these seats, a concern echoed for the NCP (Ajit Pawar), which secured nine LS seats in 2019.
Tensions rise further as the BJP intensifies negotiations, particularly for the Ramtek seat. Speculations arise over the potential defection of sitting MP from the Sena, Krupal Tumane, to the BJP, although Tumane has refuted such claims. A Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) leader from Ramtek accuses the BJP of strong-arm tactics, asserting that there was initially no necessity to include Ajit Pawar in the alliance, and now the BJP seeks to claim the Ramtek seat, traditionally held by the Sena.
Consequently, a deadlock persists in Mahayuti over seat-sharing. The BJP may allocate Shinde a double-digit number of seats, while the NCP might secure 4-6 seats. However, both the Shiv Sena and NCP demand an equitable distribution of seats.
Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Saturday claimed that constructive discussions were held in Delhi with “80 per cent” of the issues reportedly resolved.
In the 2019 elections, the undivided Shiv Sena, then allied with the BJP, contested 23 seats and won 18, including key constituencies like Mumbai South Central and North West. The Congress contested 25 seats but managed to win only one, while the NCP, also part of the alliance then, contested 19 seats and secured four. The BJP emerged as the dominant force, winning 23 out of the 25 seats it contested. However, shortly after the state polls, Uddhav Thackeray’s party terminated its 25-year alliance with the BJP due to disagreements over power-sharing terms.
The subsequent split within the Shiv Sena led to the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government, with Eknath Shinde’s faction forming a new government with the BJP. Later, Sharad Pawar’s NCP faced a similar split when Ajit Pawar joined the Eknath Shinde-BJP coalition government. This time around, the BJP is set to receive support from dissident factions of the Shiv Sena and NCP.
